AM UPDATE ON Nor’easter

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 22, 2017 12:08


From the God fadder of the USAWx forum he has been on this for over a week now and when he harps we listen up here it is:

Hi amugs,

A destructive and potentially historic Nor’easter will affect the NY NJ CT PA and MA viewing area tomorrow into Tuesday. We have been following the storm for over a week and have been warning of the potential dangers and those warnings are about to become reality. Winds gusting up to and over 70mph is possible along coastal sections and gusts over 50mph are likely area wide. Coastal flooding and street flooding are likely as well.

All members are encouraged to prepare a storm survival kit including batteries and flashlights (never candles due to fire risk) canned goods, blankets, water, and any baby items you may need. Some areas could be without power for several days so make sure you have a way to charge your cell phones. Car chargers are readily available at Staples or local phone retailers.

We are tracking the storm in real time and we have minute by minute if not second by second updates. If you lose power and can’t log on you can always get emergency updates on your local AM radio stations or through NOAA Weather radio. If you do have an emergency and need help dial 911 but remember to save that for true emergencies and not to report loss of power.

We hope you all make it through the storm safely and remember we are family. If you need help after or during the storm don’t be afraid to ask. Stay safe!

Very truly yours,



Peeps this beast is wrecking absolute havoc in the South and THIS is prelude to what can occur up here – not so much Tornados but violent wind gusts and flooding and would you believe sleet for parts of NNJ, NW NJ, LHV, EPA and the far reaches of HV. Lots of sleet if this occurs but soundings show about 4 hours plus of sleet for NNJ and many more hours for higher elevations in Passaic, Bergen, Morris and well Sussex counties.

This as truly ridiculous. Take the amounts and divide by 3.5 to give you sleet.

IF we get dynamics at the 700mb and 850 levels then we could be really surprised by snow and sleet!

Lets look at the issues down South – this is so rare for any season especially January. Many Tornados here too – terrible situation.


I still stick by my call I put out yesterday.

NWS put up High Wind Warnings (HWW) for NYC and Jersey Coast as well as LI.

Coastal flood warnings are up as well from NY Harbour and all river tributaries to Cape May to end of LI, North Shore too and Coast of CT. Moderate flooding can be expected.

Wind Advisories are up for Passaic and Bergen as well as Rockland and Lower Orange Counties.

They should put the entire area, those counties just listed into the HWW since we will see wind gusts of 50mph or greater.

Shore sees wind gusts of 70 mph or greater.

I have been asked about schools – early dismissal, closings, open – not my call – but one thing’s for sure coastal communities will be closed – if not they are dancing with  Louis Cifer? The rest of us I dont know but I’ll keep it at 40/60 open but change the odds to 60/40 for early dismissal. The worst and I mean worst scenario is we lose power whilst in school and then it starts sleeting earlier than forecasted – that would be  terrible with 30 to 50 mile per hour winds. There would be blood on the admins hands for sure. They’ll just point the finger at the pro mets etc.

Louis Cifer       =               


Timing – Starting Monday Morning around 6AM

ENDING – Tuesday early AM – if we get the blocking High pressure up North to stall this bad boy or slow its forward speed then we go to mid Morning 7AM ish.


Updates to come.

Al Q


Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 22, 2017 12:08

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