Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 20, 2016 19:16


Devo – hmm who said this and Stormy end of the week – Thurs/Fri?? Frye? Frye? – ME baby!

BIG CHANGE –  The fight will continue but Mr. Frosty and Freeze

Fall will be upon us come Saturday with a cold front sweeping through the area and dropping temps some 20* from Friday highs. Rain showers and steady rain tomorrow and Saturday morning then windy with gusts possibly reaching 40mph Saturday afternoon and night and continued to be breezy Sunday with temps felling like 40’s. Next week looks to be very fall like with temps in the upper 50’s for NNJ and low 60’s for the Urban areas and LI. Night time lows for the urban areas will be in the 40’s mid to upper but NNJ and the rural burbs will see my friends Mr. frosty and Mr. Freeze.


SUNDAY Morning


Tuesday morning – Mr. Freeze  and Frosty  baby!!




Oh and SNOW QUEEN me lady you will love this – SNOWWWWWWW!! Yes we may, just may see some white parachutes – no not the 101st Airborne Division but SNOW!!!! Yeah no kiddin”! Looks to be for NNJ and LHV. Oh and the Ski areas in VT, NY State and NH woop wooop will see a good 3-6” possibly 6-12”. WOW what a start to the new this would be.


Temps look to rebound – at this time – after this cool/cold shot as we have in the fall.

Then from Halloween and the 1st week of November temps look to be normal for this time of year around 60 in urban areas – NYC, LI and upper 50’s for NNJ.

We have to still watch the tropics for a possible another trop cyclone towards the end of Oct and 1st week of November. And yes we have a trop depression in the Caribbean that will head out to sea off the Atlantic coast.

Winter Outlooks


NOAA – Really? They never will go out and give us a detailed explanation oF this map – this is just guidance. We have equal chances of precipitation and temperatures – hmm – I hope so or else we’d be living on the moon!!!!



NYNJPA and has released theirs and me likey!!



trueweather_winter_outlook_2016-2017-1 – Very good write up


What I am seeing so far but my outlook will come out the first week of November – later part – it takes me hours to do to the write up and triple that for research – heck it isn’t my full time but a hobby so what do I see.

  • A flip mid-November from the latest guidance
  • AO October correlation
  • NAO July correlation
  • Siberia and Canadian Snow growth

My outlook will discuss all of these plus some moore of course!!

Hcane outlook so far:

                   – not too bad by the AL Q – it ain’t over till the middle of November peeps

I do not think we will get storms forming out over the Atlantic off the coasts of Africa so to speak due to the fact the conditions do not favor such. The Hurricanes will be forming in these three regions – Western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico.

            – BINGO!!!!!

Number of Named Storms (Tropical Storms and H’canes)– 12-16 (14 so far)

Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) – 2-4 (3 so far)

Landfall – 7 to 11 (5 so far on US and 11 total)

Named storms:

  • Otto (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tobias (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)


Updates to come.

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 20, 2016 19:16

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