Bitter COLD ………..Over running snowstorm Sun into Tuesday possibly…………Gasoline prices rise

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 5, 2015 15:33

2-5

3PM

Good afternoon my fellow weenies,

First of all it is Happy Weather mans Day!!!!!!!!! This includes me too – I am a man and I love the weather – yahoooooo!!

Some parts of the NNJ area and LHV saw 1-1.5″ of white gold – Clippers are always tough to call. I personally received a flizzard – what s that you ask – flurries whipping around the wind and blowing snow already on the ground for about 15 minutes here today.

THERMALS ALERT – from this afternoon into tomorrow as temps plummet and we could see single digits in the city and zero  to negative single digits for lows tomorrow morning in NNJ – yikes! Wind Chills will be brutal  negative 5 to 15 below maybe higher -20 below.

All eyes turn to this weekend. It is quite frankly still up in the air – no pun intended there. The 12Z models did not trend favorably due to a variety of reason – one the dam pro mets are harping on this storm and they are the KOD (Kiss of Death – uugghhh!!)

Now,  since it is Weatherman day here is the technical but brief explanation

1. The HP in Canada is not as strong as earlier shown on and is a bit further north – we need it to be stronger and about 100 miles more south if not more

2. The PNA or ridge in the west needs to amplify which is not happening at this stage.

3. The barclonic zone is way up North at this time which means there will be a fight between the warm air and cold air like last storm

4. We have an east based block that is allowing the cold air to escape as well

With this being stated we still can have a decent storm for our area as depicted by the euro for a prolonged snow event.  It doesn’t looks like the Saturday night to Tuesday morning but more like the Monday early am to Tuesday am . Hey it could all change and we are in the middle innings of a 9 inning game so we have some time.

How to read these maps – the darker the shade of green the heavier the precipitation – ie snow. The dark blue line is the freezing lone between rain and snow – do not take this literally for there are other things that can come into play like mid level warming that is not shown on these maps but it gives you a good idea of where this line will set up.

ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f90 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f93 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f96 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f99 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f114

 

Lets hope this comes to fruition and we may some mixing issues – the rain snow line looks to set up like last time I 80 (Interstate 80) as the dividing line.

Snow totals I say 6″+ for NNJ and the LHV right  now -IF we get this moderate snow as I show with these maps above then we can see 12″ easily. The coastal looks terrible at this point but we may not need it . Let’s just hope it doesn’t trend North – if that happens we get a long rain storm with some mixing of sleet and freezing rain.

Gasoline prices rise wth?? Yes amazing how the price of oil jumps 17% in three days and the price of gasoline jumps by 10-20 cents a gallon are they  kidding me!! Oh and oil dropped almost 10% today so are they going to drop gas prices by 5 to 10 cents a gallon – afraid not. Listen, gas prices have historically risen from Feb to Memorial Day weekend and then stay steady somewhat and then descend after eh summer months. Hey , I will take $1.95 a gallon any day of the week.

Updates to come.

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 5, 2015 15:33
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3 Comments

  1. Amy Wertheim February 5, 17:29

    Love reading this! Hope your predictions are correct.

  2. Al Mugno Author February 5, 17:44

    Thanks Amy and me too hahaha!!!!

    Al

  3. Jim February 5, 21:08

    The family is lovin’ your posts. We want video! You’re a natural!

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