TUES/WED LIGHT SNOWSTORM – NEXT THURS TO SAT MORE VERY BRUTAL COLD & more storms on the horizon

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 15, 2015 09:54

2-16      6PM Update

Our storm has just basically did a 180 and this winter is really starting to be one frustrating  PITA (Pain in the Ass).   Scenario #3 looks to be playing out that I outlined in yesterday’s post of teh different scenarios as the cold air is just going to force this more south and eat up any moisture that tries to come our way up here in NNJ – reminiscent of 2014 from this time in Feb to March when SNJ and DC raked in the snow – bite me!!

So we can see a good 1-3″ up this way. Maybe, and I mean a BIG maybe we stretch out 4″ if it jogs about 25 miles more north. The city on south sees 3-6″ and more as you  go south as shown on teh map below. Then we can see more light snow Thursday AM (may see 1-3″ with this little clipper as well) and again Saturday. After the arctic front moves through Thursday it gets even colder than we just experienced but we are winter tough and experienced NNJ folk so we can handle it right?? Take a look and I am being honest here, if we get these night time/morning temps as depicted then we most likely will have a delayed opening Friday morning – ungodly cold for this area!

STORM

Looks like it starts around 1am. Steadiest between 4-7am. Tapers off by 9-10am.

2-17 storm

http://www.usa-wx.com/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-747-0-47498900-1424119622.gif

Radar to follow the moisture

UNGODLY COLD!!!!!!!!!!!! Thursday night through Saturday AM.

 

2-20 Fri Temps

WIND CHILLS – BONE CHILLING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

2-20 ecmwf_wchill_nyc_17

Then we look at a storm for this upcoming Sunday/Monday time frame.

Updates to come.

Al Q

 

 

Well my weather weenie’s it just did not come into play last night. We had a great start with the snow in the afternoon and then I knew there would be a lull but once again no one saw what would happen next. The storm dove 125 miles south and then proceeded to go due east and then due north to those humps up in BASTAN- WTF???? Absolami I hear the Sox have cancelled all games at Fenway until June  – there is 7′ of snow on the field!!!These Miller B storms, as they are called, are so tough to forecast. This is not a cop out by any means but the god’s honest truth. Hundreds of millions of dinero spent on models and weather forecasting tools and we can see things only when they are happening or the storm is past us but that is the beauty to me of weather. The inverted trough did happen but was 50 miles south of where I thought and others thought as well would set up. CNJ and SNJ got slammed with reports of 5-10″ and some areas are still snowing along the immediate coast as I write you. The epic blizzard was 50 miles east, this 50 miles south, and the last snowstorm 50 miles North. I ask, do we live in a dome up here in NNJ?? Okay, I recorded an inch of white gold (at 12:30AM)  bringing our yearly seasonal snowfall total to 30″ – 4″ inches shy of the yearly average – and that my friends is what she said! Hey, you get what you get and you don’t get upset as spoken by the great Ms. Lauren Lio who taught kindergarten to both of my boys.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS!!!!!!!!

Onto the COLD and WINDS!! Temps in low teens with wind gusts so far of 38 & 42 mph in my area and this is not the worst – yeah no kidding!  A report of a 57 mph wind gust at Laguradia. Temps tonight look to take us into negative land in the burbs and those in the hinterlands (PB, Christina, Joe Mugs)may see negative teens.  Winds still howl  through Monday AM. Thank God we are off.  Her is an idea from experience, you may want to try and start your car to give the battery a charge – if you let it sit in this cold for too long it will die – choice is yours peeps.  It is mighty cold and as the great Cornelius from the great Christmas show Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer would say, “this weather is not fit for man NOR BEAST” as he pulled the abominable snow creature through the doors of Santa’s home in the North Pole!! I fear for power outages for our area with these winds, especially if it happens at night when we are sleeping. The temps are frigid and the winds are howling could equal trouble!!

You have the wind chill maps and temps maps I have posted since Tuesday this week in other posts, refer to them please.

 

Tuesday/Wed Storm:

We have a stout PNA (western ridge) and ferocious  negative EPO bringing us the cross polar flow, cold that is, a negative AO this will hopefully keep the storm from going west but could still happen if it over amplifies. We lack a true block to slow this bad boy down. Also, we have Mr, Nino looking to dance by the sub tropical jet ready to pump up the moisture from Mexico – hey they are good for something?

Here is my concern that the negative AO presses to hard and shunts this just to our east scrapping the coast line OR we get a what is called a 50/50 blocking (50 degrees both longitude and latitude) storm that does not give the storm enough room to amplify or strengthen. Every situation is delicate as you can see for getting a snow storm that is the beauty of it when it happens and why I get soooooooo excited. Love tracking this. More ideas below.

Euro showing a Godzilla for the NYC metro Area – please you SOB make it happen – you friggin’ owe me and all of us one after that stupid BECS Blizzard debacle!!!!!

2 - 17 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_

Stupid American garbage model the GFS: we spent 20 million on upgrading this weather tool and it still ranks 3rd out of the 5 global models – just like our cars in the 70’s & 80’s. Not bad but scrapes us – cuts of NNJ from the good stuff.

2-17 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

 

CMC – worse – uugghhh!! Snow showers in NNJ.

 

2-17 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66
WHAT TO WATCH:

1. If there is phasing with northern stream energy in future runs, this could over-amplify the system which would bring a storm track much further west. Either up the apps or right on the coast. Obviously either track would bring precip. type issues to parts of the area. It’s best we keep this just southern stream based.

2. How strong could this storm get? I have a feeling even though it may be just southern stream dominant, it may still be an impressive system. Between the 50/50 block to our north and the Gulf helping to moisturize it (STJ), I could see it getting sub 990mb. This would mean an intense storm and possible B storm – ain’t going to say it so I do not jinx us!

3. If the PV continues to come further south in the future, it may try to squash the southern stream energy which would result in a storm track out to sea regardless of the block we have. I do not see this happening, however.

The cold after this storm from Thursday  through Saturday. You think these days are cold – you my friends ain’t seen nothin yet!!!!

2-20 cold post-86-0-18982000-1423982633

This would rival the great JAN 1994 cold outbreak that saw temps in Miami approach 40*!!

This map shows the 850 mb temps so -26 would equal to about -15 for a 6AM temp – that folks is BRUTAL!

 

These next two weeks are going to be very active as we round out the shortest month of the year with extremely cold temps and storms. No rest for the weary.

Using the BSR (Bearing Seas Rule) I think the east coast will have a major storm between the 22nd and end of the month possibly two during that time frame – this is when we start to see Nor”easters – last week of Feb through March .

Have a great day and updates to come.

Al Q

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 15, 2015 09:54
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