C YA HERMINE!!!! WOAHH DODGED A BAD ONE!! SEPT HEAT BUILDS

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 4, 2016 09:23

Peeps,

We went from a possible landfall to this in 12 hours – amazing what a curveball mother nature can throw at you. I just hope that the next one doesn’t leave people with false the sense of what happened with Sandy and they poo pooed the storm.

 

THE WORST IS GOING TO BE OUT TO SEA BUT THE COAST WILL SEE COASTAL FLOODING AND WINDY CONDITIONS BUT NOT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE PAST 48 HOURS.

Here’s the moral of the story from Frank the P.

1. Very little rain impact for most, including the coast.  Dry air will wrap into the storm and prevent any convective banding from moving onshore.

2. Winds along the coast will be sustained 20-30 mph with gusts reaching 40 mph at times?  Winds away from the coast will be  BREEZY CONDITIONS.

3. Coastal flooding is the main takeaway. Some towns in SNJ saw it yesterday.A surge of 2-4 feet is expected up and down NJ into LI too. In conjunction with the tropical storm force winds that is not a pleasant situation. If you live on the shore I would prepare for flooding and power outages now just in case.

Overall, Hermine does not look like it will take a westerly turn once it gets 50-75 miles east of NJ. It may spin and stall, but that’s different then physically tracking due west which would have been disastrous for the area as models were indicating the past few days. We’re catching a YUUGGGEEE break.

The HP (H on the map) did not build in as fast as modelled and allowed this little turd to slide east more east than projected by about 75 miles – yuo see how a slight and this is a pin prick in the atmosphere – can make YUGGEE changes? WE did not have a Negative NAO which along with the HP would have locked in the storm and made him come west ala Spongebobs friend – you know – the little rodent?………………………….. SANDY!! So we learn that models are nice to look at but can’t be trusted, when the skies cleared yesterday afternoon/evening I was like wth?? Then I looked at the radar and said oh boy he is moving ene but why, this morning I have my answer in the map above. So we dodged a bullet and sorry if people cancelled plans but rather be safe than sorry.

KING Euro showed a very scary run Friday 2x that showed Hermine making landfall near Cape May then all of a sudden yesterday at 1PM (12z run) showed the storm going OTS and we in the weather communities were like wth?? Then most models were still showing a westward loop path so we said the euro had a burp run but low and behold it was right. Amazing they spend 20 million to upgrade this model and it went from a devastating landfall scenario to one with sunny skies and big waves – REALLYY!!! Enough of this.

For us up here in NNJ – beautiful weekend ahead with full sun and again breezy conditions to possibly windy.

Now for Wed through Sat – the heat builds in and we can see temps reaching the 90 degree mark anyone of those days and high 80’s. Uncomfortable for this time of year.

GFS has a couple of more storms that may impact he US in the coming weeks

Have a great day and weekend.

 

AL Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 4, 2016 09:23

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