Coating to 2″ Fri night into Sat…….Sun into Mon Snow and Ice………

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 6, 2015 19:40

Good evening my weather disciples,

The trends were good today in that the storm is trending colder BUT it is not at moisture laden as shown the last few model runs.

The RGEM is calling for a coating to 1-2″ tonight for NWNJ, NNJ and the LHV.

 

Fri Night into Sat morning

Fri Night into Sat morning

 

Then the fun starts with this forecast as the models have trended colder which I figured. My one board was like a kamikaze raid on the US Pacific Fleet in WW2  as members were going nuts with the warmer solutions last night. They never learn as storms usually trend colder due to climo this time of year (Climate).  The EURO is trending to the GFS (which handles the northern stream stream storms better) so it will be less snowfall and a far cry from the 6-12″ we were looking at this time Wed night BUT we can still see 3-6″ in these neck of the woods. If we get the STJ going or some phasing then we maybe able to pull off more towards the 6″+ range but for this to happen two things need to take place:

1. the storms to dive further south  and or

2.  the southern stream to phase with the northern stream

I would place my money on #1 if we can get these storms to trend and keep ticking further south then we  can see 6″ plus in these areas.

Here is the big concern – ICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IF we see a warmer surge of air or the storms do not take a more southerly route than NYC and NNJ will see some major icing issues/problems from .10″ to .3″.  Let’s hope we see the trend colder and a more southerly route so we can all be happy with a phone call Sunday night or Monday morning!!

At this time my call for the NWNJ, NNJ, LHV

SNOW 3-6″ – more as you go north, less south – COAST  IS  TOAST !!

Ice .10″ to .3″ – freezing rain and sleet

Rough time frame –  Sunday afternoon to possibly Monday night

 

I’ll post snow maps tomorrow.

BRUTAL COLD NEXT WEEKEND AND I MEAN BRUTALLLLLLLLLL!!!!!

 

Al Q

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 6, 2015 19:40
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    typical weather forecast..could be number 1 or number 2 ( sounds like you are going to the bathroom) rough time frame 36 hours..talk about hedging your bet

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