DANGER IS LURKING!!!!! MODELS STRUGGLING WITH JOAQUIN!!! GET OUT THE ARK!!!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 29, 2015 20:13

Peeps,

I said this 2 posts ago that the Caribbean would be percolating for trop cyclone development and that if the pattern presents itself it could come up the coast.

Well……………………. ain’t no follin’ with this one.

Now I am NOT YET sounding the general quarters just yet to battin’ down the hatches for an incoming hybrid tropical system/cyclone. Listen to me very clearly, this ain’t something to mess around with so start to communicate and make a plan for what you will need and do IF he comes for a visit. I ain’t shittin’ ya here peeps this COULD be very dangerous and the latest models runs are.. well……… ABSURD!!

We will see 1-2″ of rainfall from this frontal passage/storm between tonight and tomorrow with showers lingering and clouds till next wee – .  Then we need to see how this system interacts with the blocking mechanism that is predicted to form. IF it sits over SE Canada and Joaquin becomes a strong Category one or two hurricane (hcnae) then he will take a left turn into the east coast. Where? could be Va coast or could be LI and NY harbor – these have a mind of its own.

The recipe is there and this trop cyclone is strengthening as I write the maps below I will explain:

Rain Maps are crazy – IF it comes to fruition we will see flooding as bad as Irene if not worse:

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN!!

The possible tracks as of 6PM tonight:

The circulation – see the bands to the west – that will intensify him:

 

Model showing making landfall in the Chesapeake Bay – NJ/NY harbor and LI coast gets hammered by this – this is a beast STRONG CAT 1 HCANE by this map

 

So it is likely that this will be striking the east coast by Monday – this is a SUNDAY to MONDAY night event.

I will give another detail write up tomorrow afternoon or evening. Please I tell you this is not something to take lightly, I do not give  a rats but what the station mets are saying but start to take caution – generator ready, gas, food, water, batteries, outdoor furniture all on the checklist!

I hope for our beloved NJ Coast this things makes landfall in NC if it comes up the coast into the Delmarva or into Jersey by AC we are all and I mean all screwed – coast, inland, mountains.

 

Have a great night and any question please ask. Many sleepless nights ahead for the Al q and my fellow weather weenies.

 

AL Q

 

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 29, 2015 20:13
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2 Comments

  1. titi September 30, 07:06

    should we get out of town in wildwood crest? r we better in the mountains?

  2. Al Mugno Author October 1, 19:45

    Titi,

    What until tomorrow evening to see – the models just waffled again showing a brush of the coast and a possible landfall – we’ll see. Thanks for asking. This storm is a PITA!!!!

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