Al Mugno
By Al Mugno May 30, 2017 20:02



Been a couple of week since I last wrote  (May 18th to be exact) – extremely busy with all good things happenings – birthdays, YUUGGE STEM competition I along with my partner Delo planned and hosted for 20 high schools (215 folks it was like a wedding!), my son’s confirmation and above all I tore my  upper forearm muscle!! So I have been placed by myself of course on the 15 day DL = disable list, self-imposed of course,


I said that we would be in this trough as it called of cool wet weather and yes it sadly has come to fruition and will continue through the 1st week of June. June isn’t looking so hot as well but about average to [possibly above average temps wise overall. The ;attest long term model called the CFSv2 says it will be a cool June as compared to years gone by overall and possible below normal.

EPS concurs

All this wetness has a feedback on our temperatures and pattern by the moisture content of the ground gives off moistness in terms of coolness back into the atmosphere cooling the column of air and lowering temps. This cycle also feedbacks for more precipitation – dry begets dry, wet begets wet are the sayings we use often with weather. We are in a wet cycle right now and it looks to continue from what the models are saying for the next few (15 days) weeks.

This weekend and early next week – UGGHHHH!! = Cloudy rainy and cooler weather!


Question WTH was this blocking this winter!!!!


Anyway onto this:


90’s – you know the last decade of each century or the above!?

90’s – Don’t get your bikinis out yet here peeps – soon enough but here is a little insight

My prediction for the # of 90 degree days for this summer – this is including the 3 day heat wave we already had – much cooler than last years.  Subtract three from each and you get the final tally

PHL (Philadelphia): 26

EWR (Newark): 20

NYC (Central Park): 15

LGA (La Guardia): 17

TEB (Teterboro): 19



Outlook will be posted in a few days but overall it looks to be a normal season and I have to say that the Gulf of Mexico region states and the East Coast up to VA need to keep a wary eye to the sea for a possible major (CAT 3 or greater) this season which runs from June 1 to Nov 1). The MDR (main Development Region) region has warmed and Nino is weak at best which will suppress the wind shear that has keep these beasts at bay

Speaking of look at what the EURO is brewing:

Look at the green/white /purple blob/circle in the Gulf of Mehico = trouble!


Why will this happen look at this:


Yes we have this hangover and oh boy what hangover this has been since the Godzilla Nino began in 2015. This hangover is worse than the blue whale punch from the great summer of 1994 at Safka’s Boat House – whew was that a doozy!! It looks too weak shaping up and a Modoki type which would be absolutely fantastic IF it holds for our winter which is 210 days away – but who’s counting?? THIS GUY RIGHT HERE………and SNOW QUEEN!!

Modoki means colder waters off of South America and warmest waters in the middle region 3.4 – bookend cold areas of regions 1.2 and 4 with warmest waters at 3.4 – like an Oreo sandwich!!! Here is the latest chart on this: This is the regions of Nino – equatorial pacific cold water in 1.2 and just outside of region 4.

Here is the latest

What does tis mean = an about average summer for temps but wetter, colder wetter fall  & possibly if it holds and serves above average winter snowfall and colder.

This just in and for those who like cool weather this MAYBE a prognosticator of things to come for the summer:

“Coolest Memorial Days since 1960…none of the summers that followed were very hot…most of them were on the cool side…” this is for NYC.

5-20-17 Unc W, USAWx board

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno May 30, 2017 20:02

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 188 other subscribers


February 2018
« Jan