Friday Appetizer Storm, Big Kahuna Saturday into Sunday, Arctic Cold, Next week again and MLK Special?

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 5, 2017 20:53

Peeps,

Big Kahuna Saturday into Sunday, Arctic Cold, Next week again and MLK Special?

Let’s do this orderly because that is what the AL Q is all about – just ask mi familia and my students!!

Friday Appetizer Storm,

Start time: about 12AM

End time: about 8AM

The Friday system I am calling the appetizer why it may be the first course of potentially a 3 or 4 course meal – yeah no poop peeps!

We will have a light accumulation to the NNJ/NYC Metro area in the likelihood of 1-3” and NYC on east 2-3/4” as well as coastal NJ. May just may be able to get a delayed opening if the timing comes to fruition but that is going to depend how happy the rulers that be. They listen to the TV Mets who are so conservative you get a diamond by the end of the day if put coal in their you knows where! If we underperform we see a coating to an inch in NNJ if we over perform we see 2”. NYC sees 2” and possibly 3” if they over perform. Needless to say rush hour will be a mess manana. Take it slow and be careful – with 20 degree temps or in the mid 20’s for NYC and LI things will be very white! WHITE GOLD FTWWWWW!!

 

Arctic Cold

Arctic cold is here got to 33* for me high and through next week it shall remain – Wed/Thursday maybe a bit longer. Bundle up peeps and get the firewood ready along with the extra blanket! IF we get a snow pack then we may see temps be 5-8 degrees possibly 10 degrees below what the forecasted temps are. Saturday and Sunday temps don’t get above 25* and if we get a snowpack next week may be very cold – lows Monday morning looking at mid-teens to low teens. So say the forecasted temperature is for Paramus 28 degrees with a snowpack of say 10” (I am wishing like no tomorrow!!) the temps would be about 22 degrees. Nighttime with clear skies and no wind whatcha baby temps will fall to single digits and below zero for the ruburbs!

Monday Morning

Tuesday Morning

SATURDAY DAY to LATE NIGHT – Major changes since last night

Well we have the energy that is literally 2 days away in the far expanse region of Northern Canada – ALL HAIL CANADA OR ALL BLAME CANADA – South Park movie ring a bell?? It will not be until Friday afternoon we get this Northern Stream or Vort data ingested into the models. The one in the Arctic Circle is a YUUGGGEEE piece to this puzzle and the boards I am a member of (these guys and gals are awesome forecasters) really have no concrete idea as to this system. We have possible situations from a few inches (3”) to a YUUGGE storm (10”). Joe Bastardi who I follow very closely says we see a phased storm that will be an I-95 special and is comparing to a storm from 1967. We had a 100 mile shift West today since last night and IF we can another 75 shift west then we will see a big storm. IF we get this 1967 storm and the shift West and I hope he is right. I will know more tomorrow afternoon.

The Sub Tropical Jet will be pumping for this storm and the TV Mets are hugging the GooFuS (GFS) which sucks yes I said it with such patterns and convective storms – ones with lots of thunderstorms and lightening – the best models are EURO but the Hi Resolution ones – NAM, SREFS, RGEM and GEM-LAM. GooFuS gives us a scrape up here, the City 3” and SNJ 8” plus – same with LI as SNJ.

If we can slow down the storm then it would run from midday Saturday through Sunday morning if not a bit later.

SHORT RANGE MODEL OUT AND HOLY MOLY WOOF WOOF – ANOTHER JUMP NW!!

PRECIP BRING 6″ – 12″ INTO NYC AND LI AND 4-6″ INTO NNJ

COMPARED TO THIS MORNING

EXCELLENT TREND!!!!

HOLY CRAP THIS IS NUTS – ALMOST A FOOT IN THE CITY AND NNJ WOWZA!!!!!

15:1 AND 20:1 RATIONS HOLY MOLLY!!! MEANS IT WILL BE 50% MORE AND DOUBLE THIS IF 20:1

Another storm is possible the 10th where we transition from snow to freezing rain to light rain – the cold arctic air will be entrenched so this one is going to be a tough call – if it comes in at night the better we are

 

 

MLK Special

We may have another MLK timeframe storm as well. The pattern looks to rebound into a very good set up that the EURO and CMC and UKMET are showing a good storm. It would be Sunday the 15th time frame.

Updates to come and keep posted. DO NOT LISTEN TO THE PRO MEST THEY WILL NOT BITE UNTIL MANANA!!

 

AL Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 5, 2017 20:53

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