Friday Rain, More Heat, Trop Storm Possibility – Say WHAT????

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 19, 2015 08:03

My Weather Weenie Disciples (AKA Peeps),

Well we are over the hump for the last month of summer and boy it has been hot so far. We are running +3 above our normal temps and the humidity has been crazy, tropical – all thank to Mr. Nino. I said it would be humid this summer due to this ocean phenomena but the temps have surprised to this point. Going forward it looks to be above normal temps as per GFS weather model through the end of this month. Days are getting shorter , meaning sunlight hours which will help keep temps down a few degrees unlike July, but still we are running above normal.

Friday looks to be rainy with the slow moving cold front as one can see on this map

nam_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif

nam_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif

The system just seems to stall right over us.

Now our eyes start to look over to the SE of us as we have this tropical system that is going to make its way through the Caribbean in the next few days – Danny is his name and wind and rain is his game right now!!

96L 00Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

The GFS model last night had him traveling up the east coast – not good at this time of year since his fuel is warm water and the waters are about 2-3 degrees above normal this time of year.

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

CURRENT OHC MAP
ohc_aQG3_latest_natl

Based on the premise of only a slight hindrance of dry air, and improving structure in satellite loop imagery, I look for Danny to become a hurricane during the next 36-48 hours.

Based on these forecast parameters, I have to concur with the NHC Intensity Forecast for a Category 2 hurricane near the end of the forecast period.  Looking into the shear forecast past that time becomes less accurate, however as Danny approaches the islands, the GFS is indicating around days 7 -8 that wind shear could relax to 10-15 knots in the eastern Caribbean, but with somewhat of a little less favorable outflow pattern.  Let’s hope the pattern can weaken Danny by then, as there is some high heat content in the Caribbean that would cause him to strengthen to a cat 3 if not stornger. Still days away and I will keep you posted.

 

Have a great day.

 

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 19, 2015 08:03
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