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Peeps,

Sorry I did not give an update on the Sleeper Bowl Storm – not much to update on – good game but can’t really stand either team.

Things are going to get interesting in a good, bad way depending on how you look at it.

Groundhogs = HALFTIME of winter!!

These little varmints are better than most long range forecasters – they are right 80% of the time!

Our best long range forecaster!!!!!!!!!!

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Snow Tuesday – shower type an hour or so

 

and ………………Wednesday Plus – Ice and Rain!!

This is shaping up to be a winter weather advisory event and has the potential to be a winter storm warning event not so much for the 3-5″ of snow but the ice – sleet then freezing rain for teh N & W burbs. City goes over to plain rain as does Long Island (na nany poopies!! I have been waiting for a VERRYYYYYYYY L:ONG time to say this to the LI’ers – this is how snowstorm are to be we white you wet!! Timing looks to be about after the AM rush hour through the evening commute – it is going to be a disaster in the burbs from about Squirrelwood Road on West and North.

School/ No school meter. Leaning No School for the N&W burbs Morris, Warren and Sussex a lock no school, Western Passaic Wayne North as well as Orange in NY State too. Now come the fun – lower Passaic, Bergen probably not.  Probably northern Rockland and Westchester yes Norh Western Bergen on teh fence, NE Bergen leaning towards school.

Update – NWS colder

Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize

Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize

 

This includes sleet and freezing rain – BARNEY BABY!!

 

 

Time: After morning rush through evening commute

Snow Amounts: 3-6″ NNJ, 4-7/8 NW NJ LHV 1-2/3″ City and just outside. C – 1″ LI

 

V Day Red – UGGGLLYYYYYYYY!! = Warmth 50’s to maybe low 60’s

 

State of the TPV………

It will get obliterated mid month and traverse down to the Troposphere we we live and cause all hell to break look on both sides of the globe. Why due to a very strong Easterly QBO wind, MJO Phase 6 in teh equatorial pacific and low solar that is causing it to be weak which usually happens as we enter the second half of winter. We will have a full split which the last was 2009 and we had a wild 3-6 week time frame. Same may be true from late February though mid to late March  (late March inland regions)

MY MJO IS COMING BACK PEEPS!!!!!!!!
Moderate Phase 8 is a very good sign – me likey!! And it looks to run to 1

This means a trough will set up shop in the east adn be cold – colder /stormier phases are 8-1-2! This is what we wewre looking at in early Jan for February as a hole – delayed not denied!!

Updates to come on the S/NS call adn teh storm overall.

Al Q