HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!!! Looking ahead, Nino………….

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno July 2, 2015 15:15

Peeps,

The last blog I wrote was actually not on June 19th but last Tuesday June 24th but it did not save – technological errors!  In that post I was discussing the upcoming severe weather threats and as i stated from my June 19th post that we would be in this pattern until say mid July. Oh and by the way happy July everyone and happy summer since we are officially in summer – what a shame we climaxed, what? Yes we are done, had our longest day of the year on June 21st – now each day will get shorter by 1-2 minutes – boo hooo!

The weekend – Mr. Euro saying ugly day with temps around 70, cloudy and  showers  during the day but clearing by early evening (I hope) for the big bang of fireworks to help celebrate this great countries birthday – independence! The real independence if you want to be technical happened in 1783 when the war ended and all troops laid down their weapons for war and started to go home.

ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54.png?v=14358600

Here it is a nutshell:

Saturday still looks tricky. NAM & GFS weather models are showing more clouds/showers with the wave especially for CNJ and SNJ. Sunday looks better with a W/NW flow and sunshine sending temps into middle 80s.

 

Looking ahead (until mid July)- this trough that has been hanging out over SE Canada (blame Canada – no I am not being Trump here) has allowed this T-Rex and severe weather of Tarbosaurus to be here every few days. Speaking of how about those storms in NWNJ and Wed morning here in NNJ – MADONNNEEEE!!

He (Tarbosaurus) was roaring in my neck of the woods!!

It is not going away until the middle of the month. We also have this -EPO still up in Alaska (the waters off the coast of Alaska to be exact) is still steering cool temps and if you look just to out south by a couple hundred miles which is absolutely minuscule in a weather patter has temps in the 90 with humidity.

It has also been wetter so far and I believe we will see this as I stated in my summer outlook – tempos about normal and precip near to above normal. it all depended on location of where the t-storms set up and if they train like they did at the beginning of June (Sunday June 14th) where we saw 5″ for me here in h’dale and 3″ in Rutherford – I will take my two inches and run with it – hahahaha!

 

Lets looks at June temps about near normal for a vast majority of the state but NNJ was 1-3 degrees below normal – thanks to the extremely chilly  days where temps where 20 degrees below normal at the beginning of June – this is like being behind by 21 points in a football or basketball (no you do not have Elway, Manning or LeBron to save you)

 

So I think once we get the trough over SE Canada to move/lift further north by a couple hundred miles then we get to see upper 80s’90’s temps and more humidity – I am seeing this taking place for the dog days of summer – Mid July around the 15th until early/midish August. Humidity lasting through early to mid  Sept.

 

Tropical Season – AKA Hurricane Season – non existent in the tropics – Mr. Nino too much dry air and wind shear – should be this way for sometime meaning weeks (two – possibly four), early August.

Speaking of El Nino here are the seas surface temps – see that nice purpleish shade color off Alaska by Anchorage? That is the -EPO and the other area off South America (Columbia) that is Nino 3.4 region that strewth to the 1.2 region which is the red shade – at the equator.

wksst.20150624.gif

And the EPO STAYS NEG  and Nino flourishes but cools and retrogrades west. The chart below indicates this – a good sign.

ssta.glob.DJF2016.1jun2015.gif

So what does this mean? Well here is a chart so lookee see. Follow the thick gold line – that is the average and mean of the Nino strength.

 

figure42.gif

Obviously premature  so just my best guess but if the dynamical models are right once past Dec we maybe under 1.5C . For this a back loaded pattern  for winter this upcoming season – mid January on through early mid March – that is if it holds. A moderate Nino from late July to December and if we get that -EPO to hold strong then it could be another very good winter – just sayin’ peeps!

A lot to digest but hey I try to keep us ahead of the curve if technology will cooperate!

Have a great 4th holiday and god Bless this great land we call the united States of America.

 

Al Q

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno July 2, 2015 15:15
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