Last Month of Summer=August/Outlook. July Above normal temps/precip

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 3, 2015 07:54

Peeps,

Good morning! Well I was travelling my homeland of Italia for the past few weeks so this is why you have not heard from me. They KNOW how to live life that’s for sure. This was my 3rd time visiting (’92, ’97 2015) and I learned so much more and enjoyed it so much more, beautiful country, people and food to die for – fresh pasta, gelato – yum yum!! The expresso will grow you a 2nd coat of fur on your body and keep you up for three days, HA! Oh and the weather over there you ask, well  it was 103-108* in Italia and humid! as they say MOMMA MIA!!!!! Pompei was 120* in the sun – not much shade for a ruined city.

Okay, so know I am back and I have done my research on July and the patterns going forward.

July – well like I said the pattern would flip/change around the 15th of the month and it certainly did. We, well you saw two heat waves and the month finished about 2* above normal. Here are the stats per reporting station:

NYC: +2.3
EWR: +1.6 (Newark Airport)
LGA: +1.8 (La Guardia Airport)
JFK: +2.6 (JFK Airport)
TTN: +0.8 (Trenton)

More summer info:

90* days summer of 2015

PHL:  18 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10
EWR: 17 (Apr 0 : ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11
TTN:  12   (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6
LGA: 9   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6
ACY: 9   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4
TEB: 17  (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8
NYC:  6  (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5
JFK: 4   (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3
ISP:   3  (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3
New Brunswick: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11

TEB – Teterboro is ridiculously above average for the area IMO temps wise due to the location of the station on the tarmac. May be the next CP for having them move this.

JFK and LAG – directly on the water like ACY (Atlantic City) keeps temps a degree or two less

Precipitation for all depended on where you live and it was a microcosm meaning small pockets as I explained in my summer outlook would have more rain than other surrounding towns. But for the most part  of NNJ  we were above average. This is a map of a good portion of the US as you can see but scroll over to the right a you can see we were at about 2″-3.5″ of rain which is above average for July.

 

August Outlook:

The last meteorological month of the summer – boo hoo!! In four weeks schools will be opening for teh 2015-16 school year – blahhhhh!! It looks to be about normal temperature wise,  and slightly above normal precipitation wise. Speaking of the end of this week we have a system moving in that bring us cloudy rainy conditions starting Thursday afternoon through Friday night maybe into early AM Saturday morning. Should be in the 80’s the rest of the week with low temps dropping into the 60s – comfy sleeping weather.

El  Nino Update

Well it looks right now that we are on track for a moderate Nino event as all indicators are showing.  The weather will be the weather floks and we can try to predict what will happen but remember this this ocean were this meterological event is taking place is thousands of miles away, 10+. And we only get data from this sparse region via satellite once a week sometimes once a month, yeah go figure in today technological world. So, we look at this data and try to see trends such as up ticks in numbers, warming for instance or cooling, What I am saying is it is hard to say what will happen but again I am leaning, have been since the winter,  that we will have a moderate El Nino this fall. This winter of DJF will be once again quite interesting, not as cold I am suspecting at this juncture but more of a back end as Nino dissipates into a weaker state with chances of some good snows – could very well be the weenie in me but this is my belief at this point in time. Here is a look at a global view in comparison to s strong nino in 97-98

You can see that the waters were on fire back then 2.3* C  and not nearly as much now 1.3* C – One degree Celsius is a big difference in terms of a NINO state.

 

Attached Images

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Those of you missing snow from 35000′ on my trip home from Italia Thursday the German Alps!!! Look through the clouds!

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  • Have a great day.

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 3, 2015 07:54
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2 Comments

  1. Steve j August 4, 22:11

    Talk about ocean temperature. 5 days ago it was 71 + degrees ocean temperature today 60 WTF south wind’s has not been below 69 degrees sin e late June now in August we have this. Could be worse could be January and in the 30s. And back at school. Hope you enjoyed your

  2. Al Mugno Author August 10, 20:12

    Jochs,

    I know I was down last week when it was 75* in Belmar on Thursday and dropped to 68* the next day Friday and down to 65* on Saturday – this all being caused by the coastal storm that upwelled the ocean just like a trop cyclone/storm would do. Meaning it puuled the lower cold layer of water to the surface. Summer has been great so far and yours? Enjoy the rest of SV and see you in September

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