MARCH MADNESS – GIDDDDDDDDDDYYYYYYY UUUUUPPPP SNOW WEEEEEEEEENIIIEEESSSSSSS – SPRING IS NOT SPRUNG THE NEXT FEW DAYS!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno March 17, 2016 21:04

PEEPS,

 

WOW: Go from a high of 68* yesterday with a thunderstorm that was more like July than March but then again nothing has been normal since Mr. Basin Wide Super Nino reared it’s ugly or pretty head since the summer to a wild Nor’easter that will bring heavy snow, winds, beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding to the shores this Sunday into Monday.

This is a hair away from a Jonas part two if we can get a full clean phase of teh cold Northern Jet and teh Southern Jet -= if this happens then watch the bleep out!!!! All you GW and lovers of warmth in the winter – this is what you get – I always say that nature will balance out and we’ll go to the 50’s maybe 60 by wed/Thurs next week and then we crash again and rise and then crash again temps wise – hold on cause teh March madness is under way

We have a big block in the North Atlantic and a similar ridge in teh West with a nice cold air source just to our North that wil dive in here tomorrow.

 

 

NEGATIVE NAO – LAST TIME ……………………………………..

 

JONAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BLIZZARD OF 2016 – REMEMBER THAT ONE HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!

 

This is the main cog for the storm from keeping it from cutting west or going Out To Sea.

THIS FROM NWS:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/     THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL NOR’EASTER WITH   SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.   BASICALLY…THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE PHASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST   U.S. WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PACIFIC   OCEAN. THIS IS PART OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE   ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL STEER AND HELP A LOW OFF THE   SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOSEN…THE LOW THEN   DEVELOPS INTO POTENTIALLY A NOR’EASTER WITH WESTERN AMPLIFICATION   AND ALMOST SECONDARY CYCLONGENESIS AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES ENHANCED   ON THE WESTERN SIDE.     MOST OF THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW…BUT WITH   A WEAKER LOW AND FARTHER OFFSHORE…DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE   LESS…ALLOWING FOR MORE RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW…LOWERING   SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION…A   STRONGER LOW WITH TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION   ALOFT…WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE   PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW…FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MOST DYNAMICS   STAYING OFFSHORE.     THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF AT   LEAST 6 INCHES…MOST OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE   MAX POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM IS AROUND 12 INCHES CLOSE TO WHICH   THE ECMWF CONVEYS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS   TIME DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.

 

PROBABILITY OF 6″ OR MORE

 

 

SREFS – SAY WOW ABOUT A  FOOT

 

EURO IS WOW PART TWO

 

 

OKAY,

Cliff notes – a possible major winter storm shaping up for Sunday into Monday – scenarios could be lots of snow (12″ plus)to medium amounts (3-6″). If it wraps up as teh euro and some other models are show it will be a doozy – my gut which has shrunk over the years unlike some friends I know says we are in for a strong Nor’easter!

 

Updates to come for sure!!

 

Al Q

 

EDIT 10PM:

JMA – WOOT

 

SREFS

 

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno March 17, 2016 21:04
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