March Madness = Streak Over, April Fools/Bad Pattern, I curse you February!!!!, Solar Report

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno March 30, 2017 14:09

Peeps,

March Madness = Streak Over

Well, we sit here with one more day to this long month where we picked up an hour of sunlight and pushed the clocks ahead all to have the STREAK of twenty that’s right 20 consecutive months of above normal temperature only be broken tomorrow., go up in flames HAHAHA!

This month also brought near record to record snowfall for the area with parts recording 30” of white gold (Sussex, Orange County) and I in the grand town where we can’t plow a street if our life depended on it H’dale recorded 16” of white gold. Yes our town was blistered on the social media and news stations for the piss poor job they did in clearing the snow for that storm on March 13-14 – by the way not a bad call ehh (Canadian accent here please for the ehhh) I made in February (10 -20 three storms of white gold !) March is always or usually a crazy month temperature and precipitation wise and guess what don’t panic but we may see some more white gold to end this month here in NNJ and the LHV – Upton of the National Weather Service is agreeing with this. If the storm track goes further south than we could see more white gold of about 1” on colder surfaces tomorrow night into April 1st!

Update below from Upton:

Across interior portions of NE NJ/Lower Hud Valley/Southern
CT…thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late Tonight through Friday Night. Storm
track will be critical…with a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential…while a track over NYC/LI
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/Fri am…evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said…March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon…except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri Aft into Fri night…dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from se llj to bring a
period of heavier sleet…possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a
period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern
is that temperatures across interior…particularly higher
elevations…could haver around/drop to freezing Fri
night…introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal
temp profiles will not support efficient icing…but the threat
of hazardous travel from light icing exists.

TEMPS UGGHH!!!

MON MORN – YIKES!!

Wet Dreary and seasonably colder period for the 1st weeks of April yes weeks maybe till mid-month. Wetness is abound with some area receiving over 4-5” of rain during this time frame – sorry spring sports teams – thank god I gave this up 15 years ago (coached track the field events – weights – Our saying – “Men of Steel balls” LOL!) You get it, we throw steel balls ………shot  puts……….they are made from steel hence Men of Steel Balls ……………

Through Wednesday Next Week

 

 

I Curse you February!!!!!!

Why? Why the h not!! That month was to be this month and this month that month –did you follow that? Anyway, February was the warmest on record for many areas. This happened due to the fact the the pacific tropical or equatorial waters off the South American Coast were much warmer than normal and blew all of the dynamic computer model projections out of the water (no pun here). This fed into the surge of warmth over our area as well.  If we had this pattern in February we would have hit my as well as a good majority of other noteworthy mets (I do not consider myself this cause I am not a met just a hobbyist).

Solar – Mr. Sun

Solar, here is what I wrote up for my Weather Board from research I have been doing on the new Solar Cycle we are in that WILL lead to what is being termed as a Solar Minimum.  It means that we will not have solar flares, sun spots or coronal holes ejecting all the geomagnetic gamma particles towards our spaceship – say what? Yup we live on a huge spaceship.


First of all I have two things to point out – one by a famous Architect and Innovator Phillip Johnson – “the earth is spaceship traveling through the continuum of time in a 4th dimension we call space” – hurts to thinks about this I know. Secondly, the Sun our life of what gives us life is a massive fusion ball of energy that supplies and controls many meteorological happenings of our atmosphere/weather.
The sun in comparison to our planet!!

We have seen and recorded cycles of the sun’s affects like an ebb and flow of waves on our weather here from the ice ages to the saunas. I am not writing this to start a firestorm over global warming or climate change but to take research and present it. Question it if you will, refute, accept and open it up for discussion.
We have plotted the suns activity for hundreds of years now – how scientific well much more in the last few decades. It is an embryonic science at this point but very interesting to say the least. When the sun is not activity r is deemed low solar there are some profound effects on earth. One such effect from low solar activity is seismic activity hence earthquakes and volcanoes. Joe D’Aleo has written a paper and posts about such dating back to the 1500’s. Is this perfect – nothing is with science. There has recently in the past few years greater seismic activity of EQ and volcanoes erupting since these have been recorded in the early to mid-1800’s.
Great animation link of this:  http://volcano.si.axismaps.io/

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Red line is solar activity and you can see the number of seismic earthquakes increase with low solar on this chart.

Remember this it is not a snap your fingers and it happens but it is gradual in time over the course of years to possibly a decade. There is a direct correlation between the two as Joe D”aleo pointed out in his post on Wxbell this winter.

Now we are we with solar? Blank days and very low in green solar activity – Red means very active

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This chart shows the greatest sun spotless days dating back to the late 1800’s – correlation is less solar colder winters.

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Well presently we have had a great stretch of no solar activity, meaning no sunspots or flares that eject off and out of the ball of fusion. When these occur if facing earth they will streak across the space at incredible speeds and reach or bombard our atmosphere with geo magnetic particles and heat. The northern lights have been stupendous these few years due to these solar storms as they are referred to. Another aspect of solar is coronal holes. These are massive holes that form on the sun’s surface and what goes much come out – they also eject massive amounts of geomagnetic particles. If the hole is facing the earth then we get the same as the solar spots affecting our planet. Such storm can be so big and strong they will knock out and disrupt telecommunications – satellites, cell phones, gps etc. All of such equipment is based of magnetic waves.

Follow this at this link:
http://spaceweather.com/

Spotless Days – we had stretch of 16 straight days up until last Friday

Current Stretch: 0 days
2017 total: 27 days (32%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

POTENT CORONAL HOLE FACES EARTH: A canyon-shaped hole in the sun’s atmosphere is facing Earth, and it is spewing a stream of fast-moving solar wind toward our planet.  NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the giant fissure on March 25th:

This is a “coronal hole” (CH) — a vast region where the sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape.  A gaseous stream flowing from this coronal hole is expected to reach our planet on during the late hours of March 27th and could spark moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms around the poles on March 28th or 29th.
We’ve seen this coronal hole before.  In early March, it lashed Earth’s magnetic field with a fast-moving stream that sparked several consecutive days of intense auroras around the poles. The coronal hole is potent because it is spewing solar wind threaded with “negative polarity” magnetic fields. Such fields do a good job connecting to Earth’s magnetosphere and energizing geomagnetic storms.

So where are we presently? This chart below tells the story and NASA monitors this daily.
This chart shows solar and its effects on the patterns of these different time periods.

Where are we going? Well it seems to be and is forecasted that we will be reaching a solar minimum in the next few years. How will this affect our weather? Well, if history is going to repeat itself which nature and man for that fact does over and over again looks to be of a snow lover’s delight. As per Dr. Theodor Landscheidt paper on the Little Ice Age years of such are 2019-20 through 2030 time frame. Are there other such factors that can accelerate or stymie this process? This remains to be seen. Here is the abstract from his paper on this:

“a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the center of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth.”

He writes in his outlook:
We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Ninos should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone.

He also talks about the terrestrial orbital cycles but more so their axis rotations of the big planets – Saturn, Uranus, Jupiter and Neptune and how these orbital paths can also alter the suns activity just by their own gravitational pulls. Closer orbits to the sun they pull harder thus leading to more solar activity and the other way around as well – this is a brief synopsis of his writing. The Circle with the plus sign is the sun – look at the orbital paths of all the other planets – closer they pull on the sun thus causing greater solar activity further away well less to no activity – can’t affect the mass ball of magnetic fusion with its gravitational pull.

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Joe D in his paper talks about this as well with this chart from 4 groups – 3 out of 4 say we are in a cooling period – on extreme to the Maunder time and one saying we are heading towards the medieval warm timeframe.


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Solar Cycles and its meteorological effects

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Hurricane theory and solar

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In conclusion this is all forecasting at this point and scientists are at odds. One interesting theory is that the Northern Jet Stream is actually relocating itself, changing to a more southern periphery than what we have seen in modern times. Another theory is that the N and S poles are slowly swapping/changing their positions thus changing the geomagnetic properties of this phenomenon.  There is speculation that the N pole is now centered over Siberian region of Russia, some say over Greenland and the South Pole over the South American continent in the lower Chile coastal mountain region.  Thus the lower latitude Northern lights these past few years in this region. (Northern Lights are geomagnetic particles that illuminate at night and are attracted to the magnetic poles). The poles due in fact wobble and have flipped before as early as 800K years ago so are we in this process as well?

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A fantastic read on solar and the Azore  High and about the water vapor and lag effects on the oceans to a degree
http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/25/fascinating-new-studies-confirm-solar-activity-plays-important-role-on-driving-climate/#sthash.bA1ffh0b.pMj5WIpK.dpbs

This CO2 graph is WOW.  We have less CO2 in the atmosphere than the hottest times on this planet and more than the ice age eras !!

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I hope you have found this interesting and a good logical read. Something I have on my spare time researching along with a friend.

 

Updates to come.

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno March 30, 2017 14:09

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