Matthew aftermath, Nicole, Fall like weekend, Warm Week – Devo?, Stormy End, Nina back, Winter Signals

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 13, 2016 21:04



Matthew Aftermath

My son sure as heck wreaked havoc from Palm Beach County to the Va Beach area – further north than any model had him. He wrecked the Bahamas and Haiti were over 500 have been killed, 43 in the US so far. The flooding SE coast was historical, the last time they had such in the sweet Peach State of Georgia was………1893 from a direct hit of a hurricane. And yes we felt his affects Saturday the rain and winds were from him. More so to the South – SNJ had 2” plus – not seen by any model of forecaster – Matthew had a trick up his sleeve at every turn.

Looka these photos/videos



Like almost all tropical cyclones this year they have outdone whatever the forecast was for their strength. She strengthened to a major category 4 storm before hitting Bermuda as a major category 3 – winds 125 mph – someone said Bermuda is built for this – not really. Anyway she will turn up and out and if she did not develop Matthew may have been able to get up to the Delmarva region –Ocean City area or a bit more North. She tugged on him along with the WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) thus turning him out to sea.

Fall like weekend incoming as this cold front moves through but things will rebound Monday through Wednesday next week.


Who remembers this eclectic early 1980’s rock band?  My comparison to them is the temperature may reach the low 80’s just like Devo 81-82! This warm regime will be good going forward, face the heat and the cold will come this time of year. This not an El Nino pattern but a transition into a La Nina.



Stormy End

The models are hinting at a deep trough over the East coast that if this were winter the weenies would be totally psyched and rejoicing. I think we may flip from the low 80’s to the 60’s next weekend with the signal for a coastal storm of what we would call an inland runner.

End game tropical system? There are signals for a tropical system to form in the western caribbean and this is the time of the year for this to occur. We HAVE to keep an eye out for this cause these systems can get caught in what is called a mid level trough and get captured and brought North. The troughs this time of year usually can be deeper as our season changes to deeper fall so we’ll see. But remember that the tropics are not done yet!!



Nina Back

NOAA made the unmitigating mistake of cancelling the Nina watch for this upcoming winter this summer when the pacific turned noticeably warmer. This is like an impulsive fan trying to figure out how to sit calmly when their watching their team in the final seconds looking to score in a tie game. They have recently brought back the idea for a NINA this winter albeit weak. We still have the hangover effect from the strong Nino and the atmosphere usually snaps back in the other direction or extreme from what it had the previous year.

Look at these numbers – negative numbers of these regions of the pacific Ocean mean that we have cooler waters – the more negative the cooler the water – so we are at just negative waters.

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

Blue waters in teh equatorial pacific and also the Indian Ocean


Well lest hope this comes to fruition. If we get this snowpack early enough in the season then what will happen is we have systems that will drop down from our good friends to our North (Canada) and they will not moderate but stay colder.



This from Dr. Judah Cohen

This is a piece of cohen’s analysis from October 7th regarding the AO/strat and the upcoming winter…
“Both low sea ice and the negative AO are favorable for the rapid advance of Siberian snow cover.  Eurasian snow cover is above normal and this trend should continue through at least mid-month. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter.
The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere are unusually weak so far this fall, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US).”


Updates to come



Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 13, 2016 21:04

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