Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 2, 2016 08:48


Mathew Update – still sleeping on this Sunday morning, had 4 meals yesterday and lost in his club ice hockey game last night – oh you want to know about the storm – right! AHAHAHAA

He just looked at last nights and this morning guidance – yea no kiddin!!!! Look below at the maps and you’ll see why!!

USA USA USA!!! GFS is winning – the Euro made a huge move or cave as we would call it towards the GFS idea of the track of my son.

I am a very patriotic person if you have not seen and when we can beat others it is a great feeling of accomplishment. My boy is headed WNW at this time and looks to hit the eastern end of Jamaica “Man” – he has crossed the 75th longitude parallel and is heading to 73rd – if he makes it this far west or even further then a US landfall is going to be more likely.

Euro bring up the coast kicking and screaming – worse than Will Farrell here peeps as a cat 3 hcane into the Outer Banks and then up the coast into Cape Cod/RI. Just like when my boy was 2 and did not want to put his Thomas the Tank Jacket on in the winter and would do what a two year old does best – throw a fit!!


GFS takes Mathews hand and rides him up the EC making landfall at OBX (outer banks of NC) and then sorry Mary into Central LI just west of Irene landfall as a strong Category 1 for over 12 hours.




Here is his evolution, track and winds (in knots)over the next 8-days into LI



My concerns and I have been saying this since last weekend that if we get a blend the two my boy will make history – he has already by being my son (he is a great young man) but his name Mateo will go into the record books and be one that will be talked about for a looooooonnnngggggg time.

Blend meaning a GFS track and Euro intensity – the shores can take anything close to this they have been beat up since last fall/winter and now this easterly fetch has caused erosion and minor coastal flooding for the past couple of days – we didn’t see the winds up here or rain but they did and the ocean ran about 2’ above normal high tide.

The differences between the euro and teh gfs are the Bermuda High strength but more so the North atlantic block high pressure but the big one is the trough that is to develop over the Midwest – if that comes further east will it capture Matthew or kick him out so its placement is crucial. In Hermine this trough was about 6 hours in pulling this (what is Hermine a female/male?) storm back to us as models were showing for 36 hours then backed off.

The blend scenario would be devastating of this mornings runs.

Time frame 10th 12th – a Columbus Day Storm??

There are still many solutions on the table and with these beasts yuo never know they can defy laws of physics at times which is our dynamic fluid – the atmosphere.

Bahamians are in trouble!!!

Latest from NHC


Keep watching your emails for my updates please cause this could be serious – next 72 will give a better indication – by Wednesday – eerily similar to his sister 


Updates to come.

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno October 2, 2016 08:48

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