Mea Culpa, RECORD HEAT THEN…………ITS COMING BACK BABY!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 22, 2017 20:21

Peeps,

 

I have been away from the weather since our last storm. Why? There has not been much or anything to write about weather wise. I have a mea culpa here and I lay down my sword. Some may ask wth are you talk about? Well, I have admittidly blown this winters forecast in a YUUUGGGEEEE way. I was calling for a cold and above normal winter snowfall wise. Well winter isn’t over I know and we might(hint into the long range) surpass that normal seasonal total as I called for but temps wise holy smokes I am need a year supply of AV. AV? Stands for Aloe Vera baby – Jesus did I get burned and I shall be a man and eat humble pie. The way I was seeing things align back in November well they just did not go as I and a good many pro and very respectable pro forecasters call.

So what happened? In a nutshell a cold pool of waters called a Negative PNA and Positive EPO developed over the Northern Pacific. It ran from Asia all the way to the west coast. How did this occur? Well we had a Godzilla El Nino that forced all of its warmth up into the arctic which in turn displaced the cold over the Siberian region. That cold as it moved east sat or got locked in a jet streak that ran over this part of the ocean thus helping cool these waters.

 

Also, La Nina in a weak state and the cold pool of water was more west based in the Pacific along the equator. The warmer waters moved to the South American coast thus causing a warm pool in what is region 1.2. When we have a warm region 1.2 the east coast is warm.

So we will go down as the top 10 warmest Jan and Feb and keep the streak for 20 consecutive months above normal for temperatures. How long will this streak go on for – the foreseeable future at this time.

In closing on this I have let my brother’s weenies down and I apologize, a humbling lesson and as they say “You can’t fool mother nature!”

Spring or February?

These next few days will be shorts and t-shirts weather for sure – 60’s and even 70 for some parts. 30 degrees above normal my god. Just think two years ago we were about 20 degrees below normal – the balance of nature.

Thurs

 = 60’s HAHAHAHA!

 

 = 70’s???

Long Range

ENJOY THE WARMTH IS ALL I CAN SAY!! SAY WHAT AL Q??

Yes, winter is going to look to make a last stand/comeback – SNOWYsnow-miser is PO at his brother and wants a piece before the seasonal hemispheric pattern shift for good until the 10/11th month!

Tuesday could be interesting for the Northern folks NNJ and the HV peeps. Could see some wintry precip that could very well set the stage for the end of the week system on 3/3ish.

Enlarge this image

 

We have had a massive drop in the Southern Oscillation Index which is coinciding with a MJO wave into phase 1 then 2 and then 3. All this is mumbo jumbo for sure to you but what does this mean = a cold and stormy pattern for the east coast. How long will it last usually 10 -15 days? If it slows in its eastward progression it could go longer.

CPC

Dates to watch for wintry precip:

2-27

3-3

3-8

3-13

I think one or two of these could be in the same line of the 1993 Superstorm due to the friction and battle of the tropical warm and polar cold jets this time of the year. Cold be A LOT of severe weather in March = tornadoes in the area that get hit – Plains/Midwest/South.

So enjoy the spring like temps for I will be bbcueing as I did tonight and enjoying this weather, take advantage peeps because you know ol’ man winter is going to have his say. Don’t be one of those who feel like they were blindsided by this upcoming weather pattern shift, I am telling you it is coming so don’t put the shovel away just yet or plow for that matter.

 

I am back and ready to get ‘er done are you??

 

AL Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 22, 2017 20:21

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