NESIS 4, Frankie says RELAX, then reload

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 26, 2016 21:40

Peeps,

The blizzard of 2016 that I called on Sunday has been categorized as a NESIS category 4 which is classified as a crippling blizzard. That is was from outside DC through to NYC and wrecked havoc on the NY, NJ, Del, MD shores. Flooding was at or near Sandy storm surges at some places – difference was they prepared and built massing sand dunes to help keep the ocean out – worked for some but not all. remember you can’t tame a body of water that dwarfs the land mass – scary but humbling thought!

The record is 26.9 and they measure 26.8. There was 25.1 inches at 7PM and only 1.7 inches after that? No comment necessary

Al Q = 22″

Newark          28.1
La Guardia      27.9
JFK               30.5
Central Park   26.8

Biggest Snowstorms All Time
Central Park in NYC
(through Jan 22, 2016)
Ranking Amount Year & Date(s)
1      26.9 February 11-12, 2006
2      26.8 January 23, 2016 – are you kidding me!!! OI call BS!@!!
3      25.8 December 26-27, 1947
4      21.0 March 12-14, 1888
5      20.9 February 25-26, 2010
6      20.2 January 7-8, 1996
7      20.0 December 26-27, 2010
8      19.8 February 16-17, 2003 19.0 January 26-27, 2011
9      19.0 January 26-27, 2011
10   18.1 March 7-8, 1941
11   18.0 December 26, 1872
12   17.7 February 5-7, 1978
13   17.6 February 11-12, 1983
14   17.5 January 22-24, 1935
15   17.5 February 4-7, 1920
16   17.4 February 3-4, 1961
17   16.0 December 19-20, 1948
18   16.0 February 12-13, 1899
19   15.3 February 9-10, 1969
20   15.2 December 11-12, 1960

The above 26.8 inches is still eating away at me. I’ve gotta let it go.

FIVE  20″ stroms or more in the last 5 years!

 

 

NESIS CHART RANKING NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS

 

From what I have read we are at a 7.5 which puts this storm in the top 5 of the NorthEast Snowstorms of all time – we lived through history!! NYC and Somerset/Morris Counties as well as LI got crushed with over 25 inches of snow and some place recorded over 30″ of white gold!!!!

The storm modelled for this Friday fizzled – the Southern Jet and Northern Jet aren’t going to meet up to phase the storm which woudl have easily brought us a 4-8″ or even a 6-10″ storm for the NYC and NNJ areas. We will have some light snow/snow showers though Friday afternoon/night and it will make driving a touch slick. Then we warm up this weekend Sunday through Wed next week and we then look top reload the pattern from Feb 4thish until the 20th with a cold , very cold arctic intrusion of air coming in around the 7th and chances for storms. We could be looking at coastals during the month of Feb and I am calling for a MECS/HECS between the2/7-10,  2/14-17th time frame. I also think we could another one of these early in March

 

 

This is a good look in our pattern going forward as we see blue which means a  trough builds in the east – cold and possible storm, heights rise in Alaska and the West coast which promotes a -EPo and +PNA that will help usher in some cold air and help block off this Nino somewhat in the NPAC this helps keep that area of blue known as the Gulf of Alaska Vortex (of death) out by the Aleutian Islands is good because that will keep the warm pac air from entering into the US to a degree. This pattern we can work with but would like to see more orangy colors over greenland western which would bring us a negative NAO that would help slow down the storms and lock in the cold air.

Lots of time left so we look to relax for sometime and then get back to winter in hopefully a big way if the models are onto this.

 

Have a great night.

 

Updates to come.

 

Al

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Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 26, 2016 21:40
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