Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 12, 2016 19:59


NHC/NOAA says WHOOOAAAA!! = National Hurricane Center that is a division of the US Government agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency which is part of the Department of Commerce – it was at one time part of the Department of Defense and then the Department of the Interior but now it is all about MONEY, MONEY,  MONEY!!

They are saying we are going to have an active to above active H’cane season for the second half –hmmmm where else was this stated, where did I see this, read this……………….Oh I know…………………….ALQ’s call in his summer/hurricane forecast – BOOYAHHH!

Here is the latest

Here is the link to full article   http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlantic-hurricane-season-still-expected-to-be-strongest-since-2012


AL Q Call:

H’cane Season Outlook 5/22/16

With the La Nina taking over in the Pacific this will mean the trade winds will dimming greatly which is the reason why we had really few hurricanes the last 3 years – we were below normal for each season and this was due to EL Nino which promotes strong trade winds.

The Atlantic is in a tri pole state where we have colder waters in the north just south of Greenland and warm waters in the waster Atlantic and colder waters near the MDR Zone or the equator/tropics. The Caribbean waters and Gulf Of Mexico are above normal and warm. These are the areas where I can see Cyclones forming and strengthening/intensifying quickly sometimes if conditions permit along the narrow area.


I do not think we will get storms forming out over the Atlantic off the coasts of Africa so to speak due to the fact the conditions do not favor such. The Hurricanes will be forming in these three regions – Western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico.


Number of Named Storms (Tropical Storms and H’canes)– 12-16

Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) – 2-4

Landfall – 7 to 11

NAMES: My son will be the beast – MATTHEW!!

Remember I said the NJ Shore is the new Caribbean with its blue green waters and warmth – how about this for warmth – Sandy Hook NJ 84* WTHHHHHHHHH!!

Hook NJ
(08/12/2016 23:48 UTC)
Reedy Point
(08/12/2016 23:48 UTC)

Belmar NJ Buoy 82.3* and Atlantic City 83.3* – MADONNEEEE!

Read the article: http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/nj_ocean_temperature_heats_up_to_record_level.html

Okay so we may not see the storms form off the African Coast and chug across the Atlantic – the waters are cool in comparison in the MDR (Major Development Region) but nonetheless if one forms and makes it across it would not surprise me. My and most pro and amateur mets concerns are the close to shore spin ups that may be a cluster of t-storms and then KABOOOOMMMM – lack of wind shear, warm waters to fuel it and a trough in the Midwest equals ????? Trop Cyclones on the east coast.

Here is to me a disturbing statistic – 130 months since we have had a major h’cane make landfall on the US  – last one 2005 and her name was Wilma. A major h’cane being a Category 3 or stronger – YIKES!! Peeps the longest stretch of time since 1851 when records started being kept – UMMMM can you say we are OVERDUE!!!

H’cane Scale= Saffir–Simpson Scale


The heat indices are being crushed and I said about 105* boy was I wrong – Ridgewood and Ho Ho Kus Wunderground (Weather Underground)Weather Stations reported NJ on Thursday reached 116 & 120 respectively !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOLY HEAT MISER!!


Saturday and Sunday are no better and Sunday we may see indices region wide top 110* as a norm to 115*. Why is the happening again you ask me? Well, the Bermuda High expanding west in the Hotlantic – look at my seasonal outlook for summer page and you will see what I wrote back then – this monster at the 500MB or basically 5 Miles in the atmosphere is anchored and it ain’t going nowhere fast. Not meaning each day will be like an oven but the humidity is here to stay through………………….the end of summer (September peeps not Labor Day!) Yup and we will be in a wet pattern as well with t-storm possibilities each day with a break for a couple of days. Heck it will help handily with our drought situation.

Updates to come



Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 12, 2016 19:59
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