Nor’Easter in JULY???, H’cane Update and Aug Outlook

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno July 27, 2017 19:48


Just got in a from a family vacay to the Cape. Drove up in the driving rainstorm Monday. That was probably the top 5 worst drives of my life, here is the order if you care – 1996 blizzard from my then girlfriends (yes see what love can do? She is now my wife or I am in big trouble) apartment in Nyack, 1984 Coastal Snowstorm from Atlantic City (parents drove my family up the GSP), 1999 March Nor’easter after I separated my shoulder and this one! Dont my weenie friends have fear AL Q is here and has been on this since Tuesday – just on vacay relaxing – go time PEEPS!

Nor’easter – IN JULY??

Yes, I said the same thing to myself but it is what it is peeps. This has the making of what could be a serious storm for the coastal sections and CNJ on south through Delaware. There could be intense flooding in these regions. SO what are we looking at? The storm is still evolving but it has made a global track – originating as a Monsoon storm in India June 27th yes a month ago. Joe Bastardi pointed this out and tracked the hole way. In communicating on my two weather boards it looks like it will be starting for SNJ and CNJ by mid-afternoon –earlier the more SW you go- in NNJ by night time 8-9ish maybe a tad later. BUT there will be showers that will spread out from this.

What this will depend on is the position of the High Pressure system that will be setting up shop in the NE – if it sets up in SE Canada then from DC to Poughkeepsie will see 2” plus, if it sets up shop in Albany we including NYC and NNJ will see nada.

I know I know give me a forecast here Al Q – for now I would 1-2” for NNJ and NYC Metro with 2-5” for LI, CNJ and SNJ with wind gusts in the E, NE direction and 20-40mph range. Maybe higher gusts right along teh coast to 50mph+!

Duration – Friday through Sunday morningish/afternoon – depends on the speed and if it stalls

Wind Map: remember these are in every girl with long hair nightmare = KNOTS!!

1 knot = 1.15mph so LBI on this map is at 36 knots = 42 mph!! Hang 12 Jochs LOL!

WPC (Weather Prediction Center) agrees with me – just released this about 10 minutes ago after I wrote me piece!

Rain Totals

Coastal flooding is a possibility as well as beach erosion.

This could do these scenario – play out as I have written, change to lessen the impacts if the high pressure as I talked about sets up shop more south than modelled or three this bad boy moves further north and intensifies which will make this a strong storm.

The seas surface temperatures are WAYYYYYYY above normal and have done a complete 180 since the spring. What will this lead to? Well it will help bring moisture in the form of rains and help a storm intensify whether it a coastal or a tropical system, it will allow for our Sept and Oct to be warm and let AL Q enjoy the warm waters of the Hotlantic when he visits the Chateu de Lake Como.

From this:


to now this: WOWZA!!

Who turned on the ocean heaters???

H’cane update

As I said ion my last update that we would be in a lull to the end of July and into the first week of August well a major what we call Kelvin Wave treped across the Pacific and into the Atlantic. Once it flies on through the shear will be low and the African Sahara dust will be lessened. The MDR (Main Development Region) is above normal water temperature wise and there is train of system marching across the African continent waiting and I mean just waiting to get to this region and dance into a cyclone. Will all of them do so – no way Jose! – but there is the possibility of a majority so what the h are you saying here? This in conjunction with a trough over the Midwest will allow some of these storm to come pay of a visit to the eastern seaboard peeps. So things will start to get active around August 5thish right on through the 20thish at this time.

Euro which is the model to use for Tropical Storms/Cyclone give sit chances for development in the next 7 -9 days:

August Outlook

Some pacific weather events are hinting at a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River valley which could bring us a majority of cool unsettled weather for the first few weeks of August. Some models are hinting at the Bermuda flexing its muscle and bringing warm humid conditions to our area start around Aug 8th and lasting for about a week. A few more days will then tell us what is what.


Updates to come.


Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno July 27, 2017 19:48

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