Light Snowfall – WED INTO THURS – Bitter Cold Again Thursday Watching Potential Coastal SUN/MON.

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 2, 2015 20:05

Update 2-4 11:00AM

Well my weather weenies it looks as tough we will have a coating to about 3″ as you work your way from NYC on N&W – clippers are a biatch to call. The can get shredded over the Appalachian Mountains like Pete Carroll has gotten for that bone head on the last play in the Super Bowl – I saw my good friend Simo do that once and we never let him down. That was part of the Jets blood still running through his veins – haha Joe Mugs.

RGEM the short range model showing this – they have such pretty colors on this model map – leave it to the french (Canadians actually but we group them all together in my book) Coating more south to about 3″ NW NJ and LHV as you get into the deeper shades of blue. NNJ 1-2″

RGEM

THERMALS  ALERT – Bitter cold for after the storm Thursday night into Friday. Ah heck we are use to this cold already no biggie right? Wind chills below zero, temps in the single digits to low teens the usual winter cold.

Then all eyes turn to what has the POTENTIAL to be a wicked event from Sunday into Monday and possibly Tuesday.

I will know more once again when my name sake (Albert) Clipper blows up off shore and heads north. The models will get a better idea and have the energy onshore to sample. It COULD be a prolonged snowstorm called an overrunning event – liken it to the spring and late fall days where it rains for a couple of days light to moderate all day and night – this is what we can be looking at. It can be like last storm to a degree with the rain snow line over CNJ or Interstate 80.

We are in a very stormy pattern and I am liking the set up for a possible big storm around Presidents Day holiday weekend – Sunday to Tuesday time frame. Hey we have not had one since …………………anyone…………..anyone………………………..2003!!!!

 

Speaking of cold this is the mother ship of cold for mid Feb – coincide with PD storm threat. Oh boy

Mother Ship of Cold Mid Feb

 

I will keep you updated.

Al Q

 

 

Update 2-3    8PM

The coastal storm looks to be off the coast by a good 100 miles but did trend west on the GFS while the Euro trended east so they are going  to meet in the middle like an old married couple. Tomorrow morning we will know much more if this is going to be scenario #1 or #2 outlined below.

 

EURO – moved east blah!!!!!

ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f54

I see scenario #1 playing out Wed Night into Thursday morning bringing us 1-3″ at this time for the NNJ area and LI maybe 2-3″. NYC may see a coating to 1″.

Updates will come but one thing is for sure that it will be very cold behind this polar cold front that will swing through the area Thursday morning. If we can get some ocean enhancement we may be able to get 2-4″.  This is going to make the morning rush our fun – well not really but hey we are use to snow so far this winter season so 1,2 3″ no problem!

This is from NWS

Upton

WED NIGHT-THU…AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

AREA EARLY THU…A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SE COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NW OF
NYC
WED NIGHT-EARLY THU WITH THIS FRONT. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
WHERE MOISTURE FROM BOTH SYSTEMS CONVERGE
DURING THE DAY THU. IN BETWEENSNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND
1 INCH IS POSSIBLE.

Thurs morning

Sunday into Monday looks to be the next big storm threat – MECS (look up in my terminology page what this means – another manic, well snowy Monday on tap?

EURO MAP – this is moderate snow in the nice shade of green over NNJ

ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f141

 

We’ll see.

Al Q

2-2 5:30 PM Update

February is starting off with a bang!!

An 8″ snow fall with .2″ of sleet today and a possible coastal storm Thursday into Friday. I am 30/70 on this happening but things can trend in our favor as did our storm last night. I am more interested and high on a coastal this Sunday into Monday again since the upper levels seem to be supporting this storm better.

LONG JOHN ALERT!!! Tonight into tomorrow for absolutely frigid cold – 0 degrees tonight to low single digits tonight and tomorrow morning with wind chills -5 to -20 below zero. BRRRRRRRR!!!!

THIS WEEK

We have another polar cold front moving through the area wed into Thursday and two scenarios may play out here:

#1 the coastal forms way to far south and east and stays out to sea but interacts with the cold front and brings us 1-3/2-4 of snow and then it turns bitter cold behind the front once again.

OR

#2 is what the Euro showed this afternoon on its 12Z run which is a major coastal storm bringing the area a MECS (Major East Coast Storm = 6-12″ of snow)

Euro Mean of Low Pressure Positions

Euro Mean of Low Pressure Positions

Euro Thursday Night

Euro Thursday Night

Euro Friday Morning

Euro Friday Morning

 

SNOW MAP of Euro through Next Wednesday – HOLY SMOKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This would be an incredible amount of snow and break the record for 1 week snowfall from the winter of 2009-2010 where we had 34″ of snow from two storms in one week!

SNOW MAP

SNOW MAP

 

This Sunday into Monday – pattern looks ripe for a snowstorm as well – coastal.

 

Sun into Mon

 

Updates to come.

 

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 2, 2015 20:05
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