SAMASHED IT, PRES STORM, RELAX THEN LAST HURRAH!!!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 14, 2016 18:37

PEEPS,

WELL WE SMASHED ALL LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE NORTH EAST THIS MORNING – I HIT A LOW TEMP OF MINUS 4 AND NYC HIT -2!! I DO NOT KNOW IF YOU CAN WRAP YOUR HEADS AROUND THIS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO DO WHEN YOU HAVE A FURNACE THAT EXUDES HEAT! lAST TIME WE WENT BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL PARK NYC YOU ASK………………………………………………………………………….. – THE GREAT WINTER OF 1994!!

I have not wavered from my prediction on this storm for tomorrow into Tuesday morning. It comes in two waves actually.

Here is what a met on the USA-WX forum wrote:

Shelf water temperatures are now down to around 32F along the Jersey Coast. I’d watch for potentially protracted freezing rain immediately inland tomorrow evening/early overnight, after 850’s surge > 0c circa 7pm. There’s not going to be a major impetus for temperature spiking at the sfc initially. Mt. Holly notes this in their WWA across the region [2-4″ of snow then protracted ZR possible]. Cold ground temps and cold ocean/shelf temps will prevent rapid initial rise even with an easterly component.

This is manly for points west of the GSP in NNJ. The cold air will hang in there and be tough to remove – it canbe 34* at 100 feet buty be 31* at the surfaced due to teh dense cold air that is presently here.

These WAA (Warm Air Advection) or over running storms usually start earlier than forecasted and we WILL have travel issue for Monday night rush hour and Tuesday morning for NNJ, LHV and NWNJ.

If the cold air hangs in and  teh second wave is delayed in getting here than we could have delayed school openings to cancellations Tuesday.

From NWS – hmm sound familiar??

NYC

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST MONDAY NIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1
PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS…NEW YORK CITY…SOUTHERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT…MOST
OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY…AND NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES…SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES…HIGHEST
WEST OF THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY…ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF
ICE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND COASTAL
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WHERE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

NNJ/LHV

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1
PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS…INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY…AND WESTERN PASSAIC AND BERGEN COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES…SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…ALONG WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

I am seeing 3″ plus inches peeps with a ceiling of possibly 6″ in in the LHV, Western Passaic County and west of here and then .10-.25″ of ice – Freezing Rain and drizzle are going to be huge issues.
 Pattern relaxes for a few days at teh end of the week and then we reload from the 24thish timeframe until March 10thish time frame. this period I see as very cold compared to normal temperatures like last year and stormy with a few chances of storms producing 4″ plus to possibly a big Nor’Easter or two if timing is there.
Enjoy this very cold night with your Valentine and updates to come.
Al Q

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 14, 2016 18:37
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