September, Drought, El Nino

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 5, 2015 07:58

Peeps,

Erika went through the cheese shredder of Hispaniola my friends and she tried to bring it back but not happening with this Nino atmospheric climate.  She did not come close to following model guidance and thank God cause we would have been biting our nails today and this weekend to see where she would be going – GFS and CMC models had her making a big left hook and slamming into NJ again – YIKES! The tropics have been dead so far this year as I thought they would but they are not over (end in early November)as we know from ala Sandy.

Well, the nights are getting longer as we enter in what we call meteorological fall that started on Sept. 1 – boo hoo. Even though season wise we are still in summer (and it sure as heck feels like it!!), it is met fall.

Wow did August finish above normal temps wise and way below normal precip wise.

Temps were 3 degrees above normal for NYC and about 4 degrees above normal for Newark!

Lets look at this chart compiled by the great SACRUS on one of my weather boards:

2015:

90 * plus days so far

EWR= Newark; TEB = Teterboro ( Southern Bergen County) NYC= well New York City !

PHL: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10; Aug: 12; Sep: 3
EWR: 32 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11; Aug: 13; Sep: 2
TTN: 24 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 9; Sep: 3
LGA: 18 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6; Aug: 8; Sep: 1
ACY: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4; Aug: 8; Sep: 2
TEB: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8; Aug: 12; Sep: 3
NYC: 17 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 8; Sep: 3
JFK: 11 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 1
ISP: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 1

New Brunswick: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11; Aug: 14; Sep: 3

89 Degree Days:

TEB: 7
TTN: 3
PHL: 10
New Brunswick: 10
EWR: 5
NYC: 7
ACY: 8
JFK: 9
LGA: 6

ISP: 2

So far in Hillsdale, NJ i have recorded 23 days of 90* plus weather this summer.

We are not out of the woods yet, no sireeee! Enjoy these next two days cause the Atlantic Ridge (aka Bermuda High or in meteorological terms the Hadley Cell) will be pumping again. Temps next week will be heat wave status and humid – ahhhh lovely. Us poor teachers and students alike with this weather – no ac spells classrooms reaching 90* plus!!  I bet my illustrious NJ governor is laughing and snarking that his beloved educationers in NJ are sweating it out, just like him in the presidential republican race!!

Dry, wow has it been ridiculously dry. I know in my summer forecast I said it would be slight normal to above normal precip especially with El Nino forcing happening this summer and boy was I wrong ( I can admit it and feel god about it as well). The El nino forcing is there and it is causing havoc amongst the weather in the US with flooding in the Great Plains and SE and drought conditions in the small quadrant of the NE. Next week – late we may see our first substantial rainfall.

Well, look what I see here. Could we possibly be looking at some substantial rain next week? Two disturbances – one in the upper Midwest and another in the southwest – could phase over the Mid-Atlantic late next week to form a low pressure system that could come up the coast. This would result in 1-2 inches of rain.

Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize

Here is the EURO model showing the slug of moisture over our area on Friday.

Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize

So for the near term we will continue watching. A slight break in the heat today and Sunday this weekend, down into the 80’s, but the 90’s return Labor Day into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Unsettled conditions will arrive by Thursday through next weekend.

The rest of Sept is up in the air literally – GFS and Euro showing a trough and a break into more normal and even fall like temps starting after next weekend and says good bye to all the heat and humidity, some temps in the long range showing highs in the 60’s and low into the 50’s! CFS weeklies say other wise and that the heat and humidity will stay right through till the end of September with a heat wave the 3rd week of this month. Time will tell but I am leaning more towards the break in this after next weekend.

 

EL NINO Update – write up from my weather board – some technical but cliff notes at the end!

 

Look at how broad based and more western base this nino is and this is almost off the charts warm!

EasternCentral_timeseries_610.png

This Nino is basin wide event with the greatest departures from normal being found in the 3 and 3.4 region .
The guidance suggests that the best forcing from Dec thru Feb wants to go off near the dateline and not in the eastern region – YAHHHHHHHHHHHHH for SNOW WEENIES!!!
There should be a trough in the means in the SE , all of the guidance is there. I think those 2 pieces are starting to come into focus on the guidance.

When we are ( hopefully ) sitting here next year as a LA NINA is going off and there is a SE ridge in the means forecast for  the winter of 16/17 , trust me no is going to be  looking for ways of how it could snow on the coastal plain at 40N .

But that`s next year ……

But  ok , forget the analogs for a minute and just look at the actual drivers/guidance  that are in front of us .

We have a  STRONG basin wide NINO where the greatest warmth is found in the 3 and 3.4 region .  Secondly the models want the greatest Dec- Feb forcing to come from around the dateline which is good for us SNOW WEENIEES !!

So as a result there is likely a TROUGH in the SE in the means come this winter . The EURO seasonal  ,CFSV2, JAMSTEC ,SST UKMET seasonal  NMME models  all show you this , so 2 pieces are becoming clear / they are there  ( As per the guidance ) .

 

So what`s left to figure out the rest of the forecast  ? The NON winter argument is with such a strong NINO  , you are going to cut the cold air off in Canada and be left with a strong STJ and no cold air to work with along the EC . We see how that`s possible and no one should dismiss that as a possibility sitting here in Sept .   But for those who say lets not use analogs  oh and BTW ( No one is using a particular analog because it shows ” SNOW ” for NYC .) , we use them to see where the similarities are in certain regions as to gauge what/where the downstream effects were to give us better insight as to what is POSSIBLE and not certain .

 

So if we throw away the analogs for a minute  and  just use the guidance wee see for  the most part it is telling you there should be a NEG @ 500 south of the Aleutians which in turn as the Euro seasonal , SST, Jamstec  and NMME models see  it pulls the highest heights west of Hudson Bay which gives you the opening to seed with HP  and cold air over our area.

The CFS has a slightly different  look , its mean ridge position is further east in Canada  , because it places the greatest NEG is further east in the PAC so it just cuts the cold air off.

 

The  guidance see the same drivers at work here .  A strong NINO with  a trough in the SE in the means .  But IMO and all  the non CFS guidance suggests  if you force out of the dateline you should pull the ridge further west and that should allow the N jet to get involved .
What many are looking for is 1 what does the EPO region look like come D and we will.have to see how much that region cools and where do the greatest height anomalies show up in canada.

Top far east and you cut off low level arctic air . But if the ridge pops up on the west shores of Hudson bay like the euro seasonal shows it will allow a piece of the N jet to get involved.

Lastly,  a real big piece will come into focus on the Atlantic side as we get deeper into the fall.

So there are some pieces there and certainly there are also pieces that need to show up but if the forcing originates in the central basin then other factors are going to matter.

Something to keep in mind as we head forward: Depending on the eventual strength of El Nino and where it is (east-based/central/west-based) could have a very large impact on how the MJO acts. The ENSO signal is historically significantly weaker here in the Eastern US than that of the MJO phases, but with ENSO being as strong as it is, it could actually work to “phase-block” the MJO. Preferably, we’d want the warmest waters east of the Dateline, as that would help to suppress phases 2-6 of the MJO. his would help and support greater chances for white gold (snow)for our region, if not we rain blahhhhh!! In fact, take a look:

Now for the Cliff Notes:

Strong EL Nino that in the next few weeks will give us greater insight into our winter.

At this time I am personally liking what I am reading and seeing in how this is shaping up for us this winter. It COULD be a great winter not as cold as last winter but snowier, how could that be?? More coastal storms not these little piddly 3-5″ storms but bigger accumulating 6″+ less frequent storms.

Predictions so far:

Joe Bastardi – Cold and SNOWY

Nick “I am over here: Gregory (Channel 5) – Cold and SNOWY

Old Farmers Almanac – Cold and SNOWY

Al Q – (November is my call for winter) preliminary thoughts? – in line with those above at this juncture.

Time will tell peeps and thanks for listening and well reading –  ha!

Enjoy your labor day vacation weekend and raise a glass of cheer to Summer for it was a good one!

 

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 5, 2015 07:58
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