WINTER STORM UPDATE – 6″ PLUS FOR THE AREA – SECS!!!!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 17, 2015 21:20

2-21 5PM UPDATE  – SECS INCOMING

-2.8* here this morning – colder that Friday but no wind – another record broken – this is what I called for in January but came a month late and as they say better late than never!

The bulk of  the snow is coming in by about 6PM and we will last until about 2AM for the NNJ and LHV areas. Why we are not in a Winter Storm Warning is beyond me but NWS has their panties all twisted and are being like a fickin’ stubborn mule with this.

Anyway we can see 6″+ fro this area with some people seeing 8″ or even 10″. This arctic air mass is holding strong and saying Fordham University to the warm air – uhh  Snow Queen remember when you said to me Rain and I snapped at you – this is why – the cold arctic air always wins out.

And we go BOOM tonight

 

2-22 rgem_asnow_neus_8

Nice shade of purple – Oprah would be happy!! HAHAHA! And teh changeover to rain – does not look like it going to happen maybe sleet and freezing rain after about 2AMish but models and atmospheric level readings are not showing this – big time BUST – for good for once. We shall see.

Final Snow Map

 

final_12

Tomorrow may be upper 30’s and then another brutal cold arctic blast comes in and Tuesday morning we go below zero – this will be one of the top 5 coldest months of February ever recorded.

We watch as we have two possible/potential BIG snowstorms – oh baby.

Who called this bad boy – yours truly brothers and sistas!!

AL Q

 

2-20 Update

RECORD COLD:

We broke a record today for a new low temp of -1.8* here in H’dale,NJ as did NYC with a 2* reading at Central Park. The wind chill was -18* – holy cold batman!!!!!!!!!!! Reminds me of the day that the Chicago White Sox decided to have disco demolition night at the old Comisky Park. The fans went nuts and started to break all the disco records that were lined up on the field to be played that night. Needless to say it turned into a riot – we broke records today but not in that riot fashion!

We may see o-5 degree temp again tonight for NNJ and 5-10 for the city if not lower – more records to be broken!

SATURDAY/SUNDAY STORM

Well this will verify and be a good snowstorm – take that 4-8″ blue line on the map below (from the 2-19 post) and bring it down in a Westerly direction. Winter Storm Watches were just posted for NNJ and Winter Weather Advisories for NYC and LI.

Start time around 1-2PM from SE to NE across NJ. Heavy to Moderate snow Saturday afternoon and night with a possible changeover to sleet and freezing rain around 3AMish Sunday morning if it does occur at all. The storm will end around 5-6AMish and Sunday will be in the low to mid 30’s – a frickin’ heat wave to what we have experienced this past week no??

2-21 GEM LAM

10-15 MM of Snow for NNJ = 4-7″ – I know we are under a Winter Weather Advisory which is bs to me cause the NWS has us getting 4-6″ and the Winter Storm Warning level is 4-7″ give me a fn break – watch we get 8″ and stick it to those num nuts. Can you tell this pc crap drives me nuts. They will up us here to a Winter Storm Warning – you watch. They are all playing it safe since Juno – ooooohhhh!!

 

Oh and once we get this storm out of our system – hahaha – weather pun peeps (storm system?)- ahh forget it – we look to next week and through the beginning of March for potential bigger storms. Yes and we go into the freezer starting Sunday night through Tues/Wed.

Updates to come.

Al Q

 

2-19  11PM Update

Snow Squalls: Last night it ripped snow here for about 1/2 hour and we received 1/4″ of great white fluffy snow.  Some areas in NJ measured 1″ so it was basically in line with what I had called on the low end.

Brutal Cold: It is here and my temp is a 7* with a wind chill of -11. It will only get colder tonight and temp will bottom out tomorrow morning around 6AM but wind chills (an advisory is up) in the low to mid -20’s and this cold will last through Saturday morning. This is a MAJOR THERMAL  ALERT!!!!

 

SAT/SUN STORM: Now for the storm – some of you may have wondered why no update or where the hell is he? I was patiently waiting for things to turn and they are – the cold is going to win out with this storm for those N and W of NYC. Snow queen do not ever again come up to me and biatch about the rain and 40’s until you hear it from me or I will block you – I have the power just like Black Box sang with Ice T back in 1990 – Mush played that cassette morning, noon and night – cool tune – Jesus some people on this blog (subscribers) have no idea who or what the hell I am talking about – oh well your loss!! ( I’ve got the power was the title by Black Box and Ice T)

I know the models have sucked goose eggs this winter BUT it isn’t the models I have been following verbatim but the set up and climatology – there is no way in hell we are getting the rain they are calling for – NO WAY! Unless you are in SNJ below Toms River – too bad suckers – it is our turn fro snow this time up here – the North shall rule once again like we did in 1865!

 

Okay, enough of my rant and onto the weather here – coming in around 4-5PM from SW to NE and ending around 6-7AM in the same direction. Pissed off it was not Sunday night into Monday, this would have been a lock for a day off and a good snowstorm, a MECS at that. Look at the weather terms if you do not know the acronym. Can see 4-6″ for areas of NNJ but 3-6″ overall and 4-8″ as you go more north of here and NW NJ. This storm will put us at or above our seasonal snowfall average IF it verified. Would be a warning level advisory at best. Dark blue colors on the precipitation map below means moderate to heavy snowfall.

 

2-21 RGEM nw_r1_EST_2015022000_046

 

2-21 rgem_asnow_neus_16

2-21 snowfall map

Updates to come and have a great night.

 

Al Q

 

 

STORM RECAP:

Well we picked up 2″ from last night storm and areas just to our south accumulated 3-4″ of white gold – the nice fluffy kind that I cleaned with my push broom and leaf blower. CNJ recorded 6″ plus and the Jersey coast recorded 7″. Again, so close, about 50 miles from the 4-6″ range AGAIN! The snow ratios where historic at 25:1 and about 30:1 which means .10 precipitation would produce about 3″ of snow.  This is basically what we received up here in NNJ. It over performed in my book and this was evident as I watched the radar explode over Central Pa.

Season Snowfall for Hillsdale,NJ – 32.37″

 

SNOW SQUALLS

Tomorrow will feel like a heat wave after the brutal cold we experienced this weekend. For the record, I registered negative 1.5 degrees here Sunday night into Monday and the wind chill recorded was negative 24 below zero with a 46 mph wind gust. It sounded as if a snow plow was coming down our street. I still think it was stronger than what was recorded but we’ll never know now.

There is an arctic front that will be sweeping through the area on Wednesday afternoon/night and as it does it will produce some strong snow squalls that can produce 1-3″ of white gold from Wed. night into Thurs. morning. There is a chance that an inverted trough sets up over NE NJ  through NYC as is depicted on some models. If this were to come to fruition travel will be very difficult Thursday morning.  Even if it does not come to fruition it will still be slick and a slow go in some areas where these squalls hit.

The models are showing a second round of snow squalls Thursday night as well when the BRUTAL COLD comes in and we go into the negative single digits to teens for the NNJ and LHV area and NW NJ goes negative teens easily. Wind chills will be brutal with -15- to -30 temps below zero for the NNJ, LHV and NW NJ areas. We MAY see delayed school openings with this extreme cold for this region.

 

WEEKEND STORM

For the love of Pete this was modeled to come in on Sunday night into Monday and it would have been a doozy. Now it looks to be speeding up and getting here Saturday afternoon/night into Sunday morning. Hey, do not shoot the messenger as I wish and pray it slows down about 12 hours to get here later even 24 hours would be primo. This set up could be like the Feb 2nd storm where we had about 3″ of snow and 1″ of sleet, graupel and freezing rain.  Let’s hope the baroclonic zone sets up over southern New Jersey so we have all snow up here and not this slop. In any event, there is the possibility we go from snow to ice to rain to snow as temps plummet Sunday when the storm departs. I just hope it doesn’t cut to our west as the GFS is showing which has been a horrid model since calling the blizzard bust. The dam pro mets have been riding the GFS ever since. We will know more by Thursday afternoon and night.

END FEB-MID MARCH

Peeps, looks like there will be what we call a -EPO that will bring a cross polar flow pushing below normal cold air into the northeast and storms along with that flow. The PNA ( western ridge) will go positive which could provide potential for snow storms along the coast as well. One or two storms may produce strong low pressure systems that equate to Nor’easters and this is the prime time for such storms. I still like the Feb. 22nd to 27th for an east coast storm and I know the Saturday storm falls on the 21st/22nd but after this weekend time frame as well (looking at he 24-26th). Hope the CMC and Euro models verify cause it would be all snow like 6″+.

 

More updates to come.

 

AL Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 17, 2015 21:20
Write a comment

No Comments

No Comments Yet!

Let me tell You a sad story ! There are no comments yet, but You can be first one to comment this article.

Write a comment
View comments

Write a comment

Your e-mail address will not be published.
Required fields are marked*

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 173 other subscribers

POSTED FORECASTS

December 2017
M T W T F S S
« Nov    
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031