Spring like, Cutter – UGGGHHHHHH, Return Delayed but not denied

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 20, 2016 12:22

Peeps,

Enjoy this 50 degreeISH weather this weekend, glimpse of spring in the air. The only problem being it is still Feb and March in strong El Nino years like the one we are in is conducive to cold and stormy weather, sorry to you early spring lovers.

This week – what happened:

The models fooled us once as gain and the STJ will overpower the pattern to a degree  – we do not a have the arctic high pressure system in a favorable spot – to far north and west and we do not have any blocking to help keep the storm off the coast for a good snowstorm. Looks like we may be going from snow to rain again or at worst all rain!!!  I am on the fence with this one for this week and look to the time frame from Feb 27th to March 10th for our next possible snowstorm threats, yes threats. There is a model or methodology that says after a spike in temperature or warm up there is a cold shot and snow possibility on the backs side and the same holds true for the cold shots.  Has anyone been keeping score or track of the fact that every time the Pro Mets on TV call for a coastal it disappears or goes to rain – these folks are the very ones that called for 1-3″ of snow and we got 22″ and a blizzard?? They are a frickin JINX!!

So snow to rain solution is possible this week from another what we call cutter and 1-2″ of rain is possible – snow do not know yet but light  – what could have been if the models keyed on on what they were showing on Thursday . We went from an offshore storm to one that is going to cut over Cincinnati – only a 350 miles plus jog west – crazy. This would be Wed into Thursday then we get the cold air on the back side of this storm as it moves out – all about timing peeps!

My call for February is going to come up short in the both the snow and cold departments?? Maybe bnut I have confidence I will nail this, I hope!! HAHAHA!

IF the polar vortex does indeed finally split which it has been forecasted too ohh I don’t know for 5 weeks now then March can be a doozy. Only time will tell.

 

 

This is the split those two greenish circle above – that woudl be great!!!

 

We went from this when I last wrote

 

major snowstorm to possible blizzard to this

 

A 350 MILE SHIFT!!! = RAIN!!!

COULD IT GO THE OTHER OTHER WAY YES BUT THERE ISN’T A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH UNLESS SOMETHINGS HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS THAT IS NOT BEING SHOWN AT THIS TIME – I AM HOPING SO!

 

going forward this IF comes to fruition will be a good run to end winter -EPO,+PNA,-AO (arctic air) and a -NAO to lock in the cold and storms

 

UPDATES TO COME.

AL Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 20, 2016 12:22
Write a comment

No Comments

No Comments Yet!

Let me tell You a sad story ! There are no comments yet, but You can be first one to comment this article.

Write a comment
View comments

Write a comment

Your e-mail address will not be published.
Required fields are marked*

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 170 other subscribers

POSTED FORECASTS

August 2017
M T W T F S S
« Jul    
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031