DANGEROUS WINDS AND WIND CHILLS & BRUTAL COLD through TUESDAY MORNING/ LOVER’S DAY SNOWSTORM !!!!! Another big potential SNOWSTORM 2/17-18 time frame & more BRUTAL cold and snow to follow

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 9, 2015 19:46

WIND CHILLS – REALLY????? OMFG THIS IS SCARY .

Wind chills by 7pm Sunday – Sunday night into Monday morning are worse colder – will not post for fear of panic – I am not kidding. Not including gusts that now are looking to be 50-60mph – INSANE!!!!!

GFS wind chills  sunday 7PM

 

 

 

10:30AM Update – NWS, RADAR LINK AND RGEM short range model

THIS JUST IN FROM NWS – HAHAHA BEAT THEM TO IT!!

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HEADLINES IN EFFECT…

BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AND COASTAL S
CT FROM NEW HAVEN COUNTY ON E…WHERE HIGH WINDS WERE INCLUDED
FROM PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WATCHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4-8
INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHEAST NJ / NYC / THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT REMAIN STATUS QUO…HAVE ADDED A WIND
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3-6 INCHES.
WIND GUSTS 50-55 MPH. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONDITIONS CAN BE DANGEROUS SO USE CAUTION IF GOING OUT. 

REGARDING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST…ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE…BASED ON A LIQUID QPF RANGE OF 0.20 WEST TO 0.60 EAST.
SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD START AT 10:1 BUT INCREASE TO NEAR 20:1 BY
SUNDAY MORNING…ADDING TO THE FLUFF FACTOR. 1/4-INCH OF LIQUID
FOR NYC TRANSLATES TO NEAR 4 INCHES BASED ON THESE CHANGES.

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. STAY TUNED.

HERE IT COMES LOOKING GOOD!!

RADAR LINK for precipitation in our area to follow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

 

RGEM – LOOKING TO GIVE US THE INVERTED TROUGH – WOOO HOOOOO!!!

 

2-14 INVERTED TROUGH

2-14 9 AM UPDATE

Peeps – who wants a lover’s day snowstorm raise your hand – ah Arnold I see you are excited about this – Horshack stop doing the oooh oooh oooh – sorry Mr. Kotter but I can help myself I am so excited!!

Welcome back Kotter peeps – crap Sicola, Cerelli, Lederman would not even know what opr who I am frerencing here for they were not even a thought at that time.

She is coming an dthis is what a consortum of us amatuer mets are saying snow fall wise.

Oh and a BIG SHOUT out to my boy Franky “the P” as I call him – the Joe Bastardi and Larry Cosgrove, two of the more known and famous mets (no not that sucky team from Queens Joe Mugs even though that stadium kicks Yankee stadiums arse big time no question Yankee fans and you know it!) but pro meteorologists used what this kid wrote up and tweeted it out the 10’s of thousands of their followers last night – amazing and kudos for this 22 year old good looking Itralian boy:

2-14 Snow Map Frank

 

 

Notice how he talks about the inverted trough – that is HUGGGGGGGGGGGEEEE like me at missile command in the 6th grade on my Atari set – killed it back then and Simonetti is still Jealous about that that I was a national top scorer and he could not hold my jock HAHAHA!!! Okay, this inverted trough is like a series of thunderstorms clustered together and just keeps pouring on one area for hours but the problem with this stormis we do not where it will set up. If it sets up over NNJ then we can see 6-10″ over NYC the same so this can eitehr crush us or we stay the course with this map BUT there is potential for a BUST with this inverted trough.

This is what is called frontgeneisi where the thunderstorms are forming and will swing through high up in the atmosphere this is very impressive and what we see with cyclonic type storms

Frontgensis map

See those purples of EPA and NNJ are they pretty and robust? That is the formation of these types of bands of t snows.

 

Now onto the COLD and folks I ain’t lying here, we have a Dangerous combination of brutal cold temps and dangerous winds that COULD have us lose power – this is a scary situation if it were to happen to any of us and WE?YOU MUST seek warmth or shelter right away!!! Open the faucets in your home – running water takes longer to freeze and if you know how shut off your furnace and drain it so it does not crack.

WINDS will be howling  40-55mph winds – Jesus this is tropical force peeps!

Winds 2-15

Now for the BIG CHILL – this is for the sustained 25-35mph winds not the gusts!!!!

 

Windchill 2-15

I URGE YOU TO STAY HOME TOMORROW ALL DAY SUNDAY AND JUST ENJOY YOUR FAMILY – IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE NORTH POLE OUTSIDE – WE ARE NOT USE TO THIS WEATHER!!

 

Monday morning we go after the record lows maybe for all time in some parts in NNJ.

 

And guess what next week yes our Tues/Wed storm is there and then another round of arctic brutal cold coming in right behind that – see the pattern – this shall last until the end of Feb – looks to be colder next week than this weekend if you can imagine that !

GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_2-18

 

This would be a MAJOR winter storm if it verifies which I think it will!!!!

And I see another east coast storm coming the week of the 22-27th time frame.

We shall see.

Updates to come

Al Q

 

 

2-13   7PM

Peeps it is coming and we can wee 4-6″ for the NNJ area and 4-8″ plus for the NYC area east.  The lover’s day storm I am calling it and this is nuts but the winds tomorrow night at the tail of the storm can gust to 55 if not 60 mph – tropical force winds. We will have blizzard like conditions tomorrow later afternoon into the night. Wind chills  will be -10 to – 25 below. The vorticity of the storm dynamics are going to be amazing. IF we get what is called an inverted trough to set up over our area as is being shown by some models then watch out we can see 6″+ easily.

See the darker shade of green that is the trough

 

GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF 2-14

 

If we get another tick west as has been the trends with the storm all day then we can get in on the fun of Winter Storm Warnings that are just to our east. Dark Green 6″, Dark Blue is 8-10″, Light blue well is 12″+

GEFS qpf 2-14

Updates again tomorrow morning peeps. Enjoy the first night of the Little Ice Age Weekend.

AL Q

2-12 Update  10PM

 

SNOW SQUALLS abound today – maybe not in your back yard but they were all over CNJ, NYC and NNJ. Okay enough of that piddly wink stuff. Onto tehmeat and potatoes peeps.

 

Winds will be howling from tonight through Monday!! 20-30mph with gusts 40mph plus!

SNOWSTORM UPDATE – Peeps we will see snow .  TV mets playing it safe – do not want to get burned again waiting on the GFS why is a great question since most models agree we see a significant storm. Yeah no kiddin’. This is about to get real and I mean fn real as the models – one just came in is nuts with what I typed up below at 9PM. By tomorrow afternoon or  night we will know the particulars. It is difficult for me to say at this time what snow accumulations will be for the NYC Metro area. There will definitely be snow, that I am pretty positive, but how much is the million dollar question. Determining where the secondary surface low develops is step one. Step two will then be to figure out where the norlun sets up. Since both these things are still unknown, it’s very tough for anyone to really say otherwise on snow amounts. The POTENTIAL snow amounts could be as high as 12-15″ with high ratios expected. The minimum I think will be 3-5″. So the scale is anywhere from 2 to as high as 15-18″ of snow. It’s just premature for me to actually forecast amounts right now. Gun to my head, I would say 4-8″ for NYC metro beginning Saturday night and persisting into Sunday. With the high winds and the falling snow, blizzard conditions can be expected across the area. Blizzard warnings will not be issues unless there is a significant snowfall expected, but that does not mean it will not be “blizzard-like” outside if snow is falling. Whiteout conditions are likely. We are a tick away from a MAJOR WINTER STORM and 2 ticks away from a POSSIBLE  BLIZZARD!!!
 
If a couple of things are certain that’s the high winds and bitter / dangerous cold. Wind gusts on Sunday could reach Tropical Storm strength, and Hurricane force strength along the east-end of LI and the Cape’s of New England. I would expect there to be power outages in some locations which would be awful since that could mean no heat for some people. With temps. expected to get down below 0 Sunday night around NYC metro with wind chills between -10*F and -30*F…this calls for a dangerous situation that could possibly develop. I urge you to prepare for the worst even if you do not see much in the way of snow accumulation. 
 
We’ll see what happens tonight with the 00z runs! Stay tuned to both forums for all the updates. 
Fun times ahead oh and the cold for Monday morning:
Wind chill monday

Oh and who placed the house call to DR. Miller A???? Well he said he can not make it until Tuesday night – BAZINGA peeps – this one I feel will be BIG – Black Gold, Earl, Texas Gold that is. The sub tropical jet called a southern stream storm it shall be originating from the South – about time they give us something besides beauty queens !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I think it is all snow rather than the ice storm shown here.

 

Tuesday Storm 2-17-18

Updates to come.

Spread the word and have other subscribe so they can be in the know.

Al Q

 

 

2-11 Update 11PM Update

Good evening peeps,

Snow squalls tomorrow as the 1st arctic front moves through. Squalls are like thunderstorms,minus the thunder and lightening but can drop 1-2″ in a 20-45 minute span of time with white out conditions. So we went from a possible storm to squalls, so goes winter BUT (JAY LO BABY!!)………………..we may have something cooking for Saturday into Sunday. No, not the brutal cold, well yes that but a snowstorm! Lover’s Delight I shall cal it – well snow lover’s that is. We will know more by tomorrow afternoon I am hoping but a few of the models are showing a beast of a storm. With the temperatures being brutally cold it may be bigger than what is being modeled. No estimates yet but Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning is the time frame now. Something to keep an eye on and I have my eyes, ears and nose on this one.  Past my bed time.

 

Good night and updates to com.e.

Still intrigued by a Miller A set up next week  – those bring the goods if we have cold air!!!!

Al Q

 

2-10 Update

9PM

How low can you go? No, not by Ludicrous – I do not like that punk but rather the good ol’ limbo song of how low can you go! Well, we are going low – the lowest we have been since……………………..Sicola was in Kindergarten? I was a single man running around the clubs with my boys, Mush was living in Jersey City in that brownstone across form police headquarters with the McCann Sister’s and PB was a newly married man ……………that year………………………………………… being…………………………….1994 – yes that great winter of 1994 when Garret Mountain recorded a temp low of -11 but the record was set up in Sparta – God’s land as we call it – the lowest record temperature EVER, yes I said EVER recorded in NJ …………………………- 34 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The temps this weekend are going to be well ridiculously cold, arctic, brutal, the polar bears are going into their den at the Central Park Zoo and turning on their heat!  I have been sounding the horn, the general quarters alarm  as well casue temps and wind chills are going to be brutal – the tv mets are not going to show these temps for fear of a panic but I have no fear so here we go.

Saturday Morning 7AM – who wants to go for a swim????? Yes that is high negative single digits to mid negative teens

7 AM Temps SAt

Oh and Sunday you ask, well lets take a look at the 1PM temperatures: 0 degrees to negative single digits

SUN 1PM temps

 

Oh, I almost forgot how silly of me, the wind chills. Yes it will be frickin’ howling with 20-30 mph winds and gusts 40 -50 mph this is not the gusts but the 20-30 mph wind chills – SERIOUSLY !!!! WTFFFFFFF!!!

This is at 1PM not the morning  boys and girls. Negative 15 to 25 below zero for our area. A -30 below plus is not out of the question

SUN windchill

 

Okay now for the snow – uugghhh!!

We cannot win with this but a light event Thursday early afternoon to about 10PM for the area

Amounts – this storm went to the fish in a big way – a coating to the western parts of NJ to about 2″ to the NENJ area and 2-4″ from the City and to just outside to Middle of LI.

 

Saturday into Sunday we will see another Clipper come through but slide to the south of us and gain strength once it hits the Atlantic – can it come north – possibly but we need the ridge in the west to stay up – give it some of that Cialis please, either Simo or Gili’s  to pump this western ridge up so we get a snowstorm. We may even get what is called an inverted trough like we did on March 7th of 2013 were it poured snow and we had 8″ in about 5 hours! Could be a 1-3″ again or more  – another VDay lovers storm.

Then we watch next week Tues – Thurs time frame – I like this period for a storm – hopefully the cold air will be around cause I can see  Dr. Miller A coming to town.

I’ll keep you posted.

 

Al Q

 

 

2-9

7PM

Okay peeps some may say storm busted cause we did not get the 4″plus I was calling for – you can say that and I would agree BUT (JAY LO here) I said if it trended North by about 15-20 miles we get ungats!! No, I said we get more ice than snow – I don’t lie like my dog in front of the fireplace. Umm and BINGO we did – nice delayed opening for some and day off for others. I measured 1.5″ of sleet, freezing rain, snow, graupel, dog hair, bird poop and leaves today!

Cold tonight and peeps do not be fooled by the temps of NYC – we have a 14-16″(some places more) snow pack out here in NNJ, NWNJ and LHV this will keep temps down and I think we break the freezing mark tomorrow but not for a few hours above the Mason Dixon line of winter temps.

Okay,  I know you want to know my about the title I posted so here we go. Buckle up because for the next two weeks we may be in for a great winter ride – who wants a ticket? It’ll cost you this, tell six (6) or more of your friends/family members they have to sign up and then we shall proceed okay? Then you all can be in ………………………..the………………………………..know……………………………………………..

 

 

 

 

GFS says hello to a possible warning level criteria (Winter Storm Warning 4-8″)snowstorm Thursday into Friday  – snow ratios are going to be through the roof just like we had last year so even if we get .4″ of moisture with a ratio of 15:1 we can see 5-9″ of snow, if the ratio is 20:1 then we see 8-12″ – could very well be.

 

GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f78 2-12

 

f84

These are what is called the ensemble panels which give an idea of what scenarios can be played out – this is for you Jamie (thanks for the comment you $&!#)

 

Then Friday through Monday brutal cold for us temps at night zero to  below zero with wind chills -10 to -25 below zero – yea no kidding. IF we get a decent snowstorm Thursday into Friday then the temps dive down even further. HOLY MOTHER OF COLD!!!

I am calling and have said this for a while now that Presidents Day week we have the potential for a big storm – Euro and GFS hinting at as well.

 

Updates to come.

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno February 9, 2015 19:46
Write a comment

6 Comments

  1. summer February 12, 14:36

    Al,
    How bad does the snow look for Boston this weekend? We are heading up tomorrow for hoops tourney.
    Love the blog, keep up the great work!

  2. Al Mugno Author February 12, 19:31

    sefoerch – really?? Holy shit Boston looks like it will have a full blown blizzard! I hate to be the bearer of that news but you may not be able to get out nonetheless home. Listen we MAY get a significant if not major snowstorm Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning and temsp are going to be record breaking cold. Best of luck and Tues into Wed looks to be a major storm too! Thanks for following and please pass along to friends and family and have them signup and subscribe – it’s FREEEEEEEEE!!!

    Al

  3. Valerie February 14, 10:31

    When can I start complaining it’s too hot out?????

  4. Al Mugno Author February 14, 11:46

    Maybe April Val – hahaha – once El Nino gets going then it starts to pump from the south west and that is when our temps will become warm to hot – we have a LOOONNNNNNNGGGGGGGG way to go – the maps/models are saying that we ain’t seen nothing yet from this cold and snowy pattern. Remember that cartoon I posted in my November ebalst/blog – we’ll that is going to be many of you/us in the next few weeks.

    Al

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