Tropics, Italia, Laverne and Shirley?,Preliminary Winter Discussion

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 30, 2016 22:57


Edit: I just finished this after more research on the what is to come!

Good morning on this next to last day of August. Sad to say you that summer is coming to an end when you hear on radio the great Don Henley Song “Boys of Summer” – awesome tune so here you go – boo friggin hoo!

(I was one of those years gone by with my boys at Bar A in Belmar where I worked and of course the Safka Boathouse in Manasquan – yes we named our house!! It was killer for the mid 90’s with central air, nautical theme big open plan, 1 block from the beach, a wet bar made out of boat oh the times.) The shadows are getting longer and the friggin’ sun glare is ridiculous. Oh and school begins this week for a few (my entire family YUCK!!)in NNJ – some anti–summer and fun peeps have taken control in this area in education!!

What do we have in store – beautiful weekend ahead with temps around 80* dry conditions – Nina like pattern with some cool nights – may see some 40’s in the ruburbs and rural areas – NICE!! BUT we have two things to be concerned with:

UNO: The Bermuda High looks to build back and bring us humid and hot conditions. We will have a pattern where we have a few days of hot sticky weather – not 105 -110* type but upper 80’s to low 90’s with humidity and real feel in mid-90’s to upper 90’s. Some breaks in this for a couple of days and then it builds back, the hotlantic will not let summer end early this year – well it could if we get one or two or even three trop cyclones to disrupt and cause upwelling of our waters. This leads me to two:

DUE(Italian here -Do ya!):

We have a bubbling and I mean bubbling Atlantic for tropical cyclone development. Look at how warm the waters are along the coast or western HOTLANTIC!!! That is Celsius folks so 2.8* is about 5* Fahrenheit warmer than normal – temps are at about 78* and warmer!!

My fears and predictions back in May (my summer and hurricane outlook page)may come to fruition for not only our area but the entire East Coast. WE have a few low pressures over Africa, a more favorable pattern setting up over the MDR (Main Development Region) of the tropics and a huge High Pressure system in the Atlantic that will look to steer the storms towards the USA mainland. The waters are again 4-5* above normal so it will feed the beasts. TV Mets will downplay this so as to not cause over hyping or panic but keep an eye out to sea and tuned to my updates.


Okay so 99L or TD 9 is set to hit the Fla Coast sometime in the next 48 hours. IF the mid-level low pressure center and the upper level low pressure center stack vertically like the Lavern & Shirley episode (below)with at the Italian Festival with the greased pole – the Fazio team!!


If this happens (it is getting closer)then we will get intensification to a medium to possibly strong tropical storm maybe low level Category 1 Hcane. Now it is progged to cross the Fla panhandle and then remerge around the north Fla/Georgia coast. It is then projected to move up the coast and from here it gets tricky. Some models and its superior ensemble members are saying it gets captured by a trough in the Midwest and tugged east and there is also blocking over the Eastern Canada area that will block this from moving in NE direction. This would spell trouble for our coastlines.

NHC says it get scooted out to sea (OTS we call it)

Look at the latest GFS Ensemble members – Ay caramba peeps – this TS is sitting on the jersey coast – this would be terrible – see the Low Pressure over the South Dakota Region – that would tug this puppy eastward and the blue over SE Can – that is a block

Now for some pasta – here is whata wea calla da spaghettia loopa – this i how they speak english in Italia – they end every word with an a sound:


Tre – Sept 8th to 13th watch for a tropical cyclone possibly a major (Category 3 or more) to impact the East Coast) why you ask? The MJO is becoming very favorable for trop cyclone development as the walker cell that perturbed or oppressed this development has now moved east in the PAC and is allowing for the T-storms to develop.

Here is the development chances over the next five days – this could be the one peeps?


Look to winter 2016-17 – one word that comes to mind now – at this stage – BLOB! No not this BLOB but the red orange blob that is in the Gulf of Alaska and and Bearing Sea!! famous 1950’s movie but this blob. Insert the map.


If this were to come to fruition then with a weak Nina state of the Pacific we will see a 2013-14 type winter with other analog possibilities – 95-96, 83-84, 67-68,03-04 & 93-94 are some of my top comparison years so far and look at the below normal temps from Dec to Feb on this map below -OHHH NELLLIE!


In my research I came across a most interesting article for weather enthusiast, weenies who are looking to further their knowledge. It is called “delayed oscillations”. What it simply means is that the Nina state maybe showing this in the SST’s (sea Surface Temperatures) but the atmosphere is delayed in this response and is still in an El Nino weak state. If this were to continue for the next 4-5 months – the research state there is about a 6 month lag then winter can be BANG BANG!! Look at the blue in SE Canada on the map below– that is the most beautiful sight I have seen since the Great Blizzard Maps of 2016!! THAT’S SNOW SNOW QUEEN WOOP WOOP!!

Why Italian in my above explanation? For the 247 people of my home land who perished and thousands who are suffering from the earthquake that hit the central region 6 days ago my prayers and well wishes are with you. You may have to return the favor if the tropics keep this pace!

So TD9 is going to make landfall as possible Hcane Cat 1 at best or Medium intensity Trop Storm at least.

Oh and rip currents galore the next week due to Gaston in the Ocean and now this possible storm – surfs up dudes and Hannnnngggg TEN !!


Updates to come.


Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 30, 2016 22:57

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