Tuesday – T-REX and Tarbosaurus – wash out/flooding, El Nino update, Rest of Summer

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 10, 2015 21:01

Peeps,

On this first double digit day for the last meteorological month of summer – yes that is right kids we are in the home stretch of summer – boo hoo! I know it stinks but let’s enjoy it while we can.

So far we have been 2* (* symbol means degrees) below normal temps wise and it has been gorgeous in my book with temps in the 60’s at night and low humidity (well 7 out of the first 10 days) and temps in the 80’s. I see about 4 -6 more days of temps in the 90’s for the remainder of the seasonal summer (Sept 21st final day). I can admit I was wrong with this prediction for our summer overall and the pattern flipped like I said it would by approx July 15th. From July 15th until now we have had many days of 90* with humidity. I knew that with Mr Nino it would be humid but I did not expect so many 90* days and why you ask? I am glad you did, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) that we cursed all winter long for not cooperating (being negative to lock in the cold air and slow down our snowstorms – heck at least I was!) did an about face and went negative which caused the heat to get locked in. It did so on July 17th – shocker but my prediction for the pattern change was on baby. It has not been this negative in over two years (summer).  Let me talk about tomorrow then what this indicator means going forward below.

Tuesday = WASHOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!1

.75 – 2″ OF Rain likely and we need it, reservoirs, lawns, plants, animals and children need this too – heck it is summer, let them go play in the rain and now what it feels like – Gene Kelly??

18Z RGEM loaded with rain

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HRRR showing us getting hammered with T-REX and Possible Tarbosaurus manana peeps – severe t-storms

hrrr_2015081021_ref_15min_pennsylvania.g

After tomorrow a great stretch of weather – sun and great temps – may see rain again on Saturday morning from 5 am ish until late morning – this can change.

Now back to El  Nino- looks to be moderate peeps like I have been saying not going super

El Nino Weather tool

MEI Value

Apr/May: 1.567
May/Jun: 2.06
Jun/Jul: 1.972

What is MEI?
MEI is determined as the first principal component of six different parameters: sea level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and cloudiness using data from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS ). It is the most comprehensive technological tool for measuring La Nina’s and El Nino’s.

MEI is calculated twelve times per year for each “sliding bi-monthly season”, characterized as January–February, February–March, March–April, and so on.

It is (MEI data) also saying that we are in a moderate El Nino state

Enlarge this image

This CFSv2 is another model we use for this weather phenomena but is a tick or two less than the MEI index so if we take a blend we are in a true moderate state of +1.8* Celsius – look at that brown streak on the maps – some serious warm water at the equator for the pacific.

Now onto sunspot cycle. A warming Stratosphere leads to a cooling TROPOSPHERE. The sun is in a “dead” period. Check out the graphic below:

We’re currently in between cycle 24 and 25 and that insists on an inactive sun, with the peak (of the dead period) coming in 2020. This graphic is just a forecast mean, which means while the overall year may have low sun activity there may still be a 1-2 month period where it’s actually active with solar storms and what not. Hopefully its active period does not occur over the winter time. We should have a much better idea by Fall. Sun cycle  is where things get very interesting:

-AO July’s since 1950 and their corresponding DJF values.

image.jpg

 

 

Close to 2009 – remember this winter?? Anyone? Bueller? Frye? Umm we had 60″ of snow from Dec 6th   to Feb 14th!

So what does this mean – a negative AO (Atlantic Oscillation) bring the cold air and northern storms. There is a direct relation between the July AO and NAO readings and DJF (Winter months of December January and February) Both were negative for July – if and IF we get a moderate Nino with these two indicators than as they say in Italia MOMMA MIA!! this winter can be the cherry on the last two – yea no sh!#. Oh and the Italians believe things happen in three’s – we shall see.

Jersey shore last week : Water temp went from 75* on Wed to 68* Fri to 64* Saturday and Sunday. Why – the coastal storm that missed us upwelled the ocean pulling the colder layers from the depth to the surface – this is why the Red Flags were flying Saturday and Sunday at most beaches.  Not quite George Costanzo hahaha! !https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8DoARSlv-HU

Has anyone seen this site: http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/ – SNOW WEENIES REJOICE AND DELIGHT!!! Way too early for this let’s enjoy the last weeks of summer!

Get ready for heavy rain. The models are showing what could an interesting set up the end of the month with a ridge sliding east and puping up the 3 H’s of heat, haze and humidity BUT allowing a coastal or trop cyclone to slide up the coast. Doubt it with this Nino pattern but we shall see…..

Have a great night and thanks for listening.

More to come.

 

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 10, 2015 21:01
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