COMEN BACK, SNOW/ Arctic #3 = TA, OCCLUDE……..???

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 17, 2016 09:56


Quick note here had surgery so sorry for no updates lately. Missed the snow event, well I knew it was coming and witnessed it with shear delight as any weenie () would but not in any shape to post. .3″ (THREE TENTHS of an inch) was recorded bring our yearly total to a whopping ……………………….           .5″ HALF INCH!!!!!


So here we go into the best 2nd half comeback possibly ever – no not as great as my 2002 soccer team – down 4-0 at the half at Wayne Hills who was 7-1 at the time, extremely good team, ripped my team at the half and said”get on the bus cause we are going home” and I started to pack things up – they were in disbelief! A few more choice words made some changes and we came back and won the game in OT 5-4 on an incredible play by Capts. Will Mazzuto and Antony Lupinacci with 2 seconds left – that is what this 2nd half of winter could be like if not better after a record warm  Nov and Dec (ridiculously warm!).

The pattern has flipped and we are on the midst of this as I outlined in my winter outlook that mid Jan we would see this and guess what – it is mid January on the calendar – woo hoooo!! Also said we would see some severe arctic outbreaks well here comes numero (??), actually #3 this month. Jan 3-5, Jan.10-12 and this week. Temps for NNJ are in the mid – upper 20’s for highs and may see single digits in the colder sections – dem hills at night but low teens everywhere else.


MON Night

TUES Night

TA = THERMAL ALERT: Wind Chills will be near Zero/SINGLE DIGITS all of these mornings. So bundle up and it is January the heart of winter – YIPEEEEEEEE!!


SNOW – Minor moving  in this afternoon  4ish Update just checked maps at 9:15

That MLK special I was touting – well yea, it is taking its march just east of us due to those California Hippies crashing our party – yes yuo heard me. The ridge out on the west coast which we need to help bring the storm up teh coast is collapsing so it will shunt OTS (out to sea) BUT we will see another coating to possibly 1″ in the NNJ NYC area when all is said and tonight and through tomorrow morning due to Lake effect Snows SHowers that will try to join the mini party or OCCLUDED invitation as I am calling it.

The invitation is going to be for the later part of the week- Friday/Saturday storm. Yea yea yea I know I have posted three of these already and none have worked out – HELL NINO (El nino is the real name) is to blame and GW’s will rejoice for this – SCREETCH – NO WAY !! It is due to atmospheric conditions again over the Indian Ocean that is screwing up the pattern with convection totally abnormal for this type of nino set up (basin wide meaning it runs from the dateline to the SA coast along the equator). No one knows or will speak of since teh world leaders including the Pope has an agenda on GW. It is going to settle down as most wild indians do in time can’t go on forever know can they? Brings me to …….



Definition of occlude

  1. transitive verb
  2. 1:  to close up or block off :obstruct<a thrombus occluding a coronary artery

Where the heck am I going here as a teacher you will come to love this word for our next storm!!

The storm right now is out off the coast of Japan 60 hours from making landfall on the US west coast and 150 hours away from affecting us here. This term is what yuo want to hear in the winter time for a SNOWSTORM!!!!!!!!!!! Because it will mean the downstream block (Negative NAO) will shunt, stop, slow down or as Webster puts it BLOCK OFF the storm from escaping OTS or moving up the coast. We can see our first MAJOR winter storm at the end of this week. I know it has probably hit social media this morning and these idiots are going to get crazy with this. Now you listen to me, there is POSSIBILITY/ POTENTIAL we can see a HECS if not a BECS IF and I stress IF all pieces come together. I will gladly take a SECS or even a MECS but would love to see either of what I just mentioned. All models have the storm  signal and have had it for 3 runs now but things can change – for the worse or better!

Here is the BEAST as depicted last night and tis mornin:


















DC to BAAASTAN here peeps !! An I 95 Special have not seen one of these since 2010!

This would be a NESIS storm developed PAUL J. KOCIN AND LOUIS W. UCCELLINI (KU Storm as it is referred to)

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

Table 1: NESIS categories, their corresponding NESIS values, and a descriptive adjective:




















IF this were to come to fruition as depicted above and I am CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC this would be in the 3-4 category easily!

Looking ahead we have a few more vorts or storm sin this active pipeline and I said by late Jan we would see our first snow, accumulation storm – WE SHALL SEE.

Updates to come by Tuesday on this and please please don’t go around spreading rumors and these maps I posted just temper your expectations – many things can happen – it doesn’t phase properly, the block is too far south, the ridge in the west collapses, my dog ate my homework, I did not sleep last night, etc etc. You get what I am saying right?

Enjoy the snow today/tonight and cold and we go from there, okay?


Al Q




Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 17, 2016 09:56
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