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Hurricane Outlook 2017

Peeps,

Here is my official Hurricane Outlook for 2017 on this first day of the season.

Well we have had one H’cane as I refer to them so far this season in Trop Storm Arlene in late April. Is this a sign of things to come? Will the east Coast need to watch out for a hurricane landfall? Will the Gulf and or East Coastline get a Major category 3 hurricane this year (this means making landfall)? What atmospheric drivers or non-drivers will affect this season? What are the new tools and warnings the NHC and NOAA are using?

Well let’s see the list of names for this season – remember Arlene is off the list so far.

Don (Pardo?), Franklin ( a slow mover like the turtle), Gert (talk about an old school name!)Harvey (he is a wall banger type) Katia ( the Soviet Spy), Jose ( better watch him – he’ll hit Tex-ass for sure), Nate (he will be one to watch out for) I think we make it to Rina this year for named storms

 

What atmospheric drivers or non-drivers will affect this season?

Since we basically have a weak Nino – this is where the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters are cooler – much cooler than they were at this time these past few years this has an effect on the development in the Gulf of Mehico and the Caribbean development regions. Nino when it is strong to moderate causes wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere this shredding the cloud tops off of the would be beasts. If the clouds or thunderstorms cluster can’t grow in altitude and form then in essence the energy gest dispersed out away from the main center of what would we circulation. So we have again a weak Nino which will aid in the development of hurricanes since we will have low to no wind shear.

 

Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. One has to look at the MDR or main development region for the other part of this answer. This region off the African coast again near the equator and in the tropics is above normal. Hurricanes love and need warm water to fuel themselves. This region is warm and will be a breeding ground for these storms.

African Sahara dust. The last few years this has been above normal and this arid air was picked up by satellite imagery hundreds of miles off the African continent these past few summers thus suffocating the development of these storms. It has since quieted or died down so this too will aid in the development of these storms. Can this change you ask absolutely but the atmosphere right now moving forward do seem to be inclined to this reversal at this time. This is the link to track this.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?prod=splitEW

 

Will the east Coast need to watch out for a hurricane landfall? Will the Gulf and or East Coastline get a Major category 3 hurricane this year (this means making landfall)?

The answer to both of questions in my opinion is YES and I hate to say this. Yes Sandy had Category 3 destruction but was NOT A CAT 3 H’cane she was a CAT 1 that was downgraded about 25 miles before landfall – imagine this – YIKKESSS!

Let’s look at the Safford Simpson Hurricane category chart

 

The last h’cane to make landfall as a Cat 3 was Katrina and Wilma in the same summer – 2005!! If you recall our gasoline prices shot up $1 in two days and the lack of help for Americans – not just in New Awleans (Orleans I know) but the entire Gulf Coast from Bama to Tex-ass. The news hyped this area due to the urban issues of pillage, death, destruction, lack of human conditions for most and animalistic innate behavior that grasped this city.  So, why will this happen, read above for your answer – weak Niño, warm MDR region, lack of shear and with lower pressures over the North American continent as we are experiencing and may last or reconvene later this summer into the fall is a recipe for such.

 

What are the new tools and warnings the NHC and NOAA are using?

Storm Surge warning levels/maps

Tropical Storm wind probability maps

Cone of impact out to 5 days

 

 

Predictions: NOAA

 

Joe Bastardi:

 

Colorado State:

Released June 1, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2017
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12)* 14**
Named Storm Days (60.1) 60
Hurricanes (6.5) 6
Hurricane Days (21.3) 25
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 2
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 5

AL Q:

Named Storms: 12-16

Hurricanes: 5-8

Major Hurricanes: 2-4

 

Well there you have it and lets see where we end up come November the end of this season.

 

AL Q

 

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