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Summer & Hurricane 2016 Outlook

Summer Outlook 2016/

Hurricane Outlook 2016

Peeps, I am giving a big shout out to my sons friend Kevin who is a weather junior disciple of mine once finding out about my interest in meteorology and my future casting abilities!! He is a h’cane die hard and loves the beasts besides the snowstorms casue he wasnts offf rom school just likeany other kid in school and teacher for that matter right? Of Frickin’ course!

I know we are 22 days away from the start of the season of skin and lotion and we are in hurricane season known as H’cane season. We are transitioning from the strongest El Nino ever recorded since records have been kept in the 1950’s – yes ONLY about 60 years not a long time what so ever! – to what some are calling for the pull back on a very strong La Nina.  The transition will be taking place all summer long and into the fall for that matter but the effects will be felt as we head into the dog days of summer and late summer.

What will happen is there will be a trough that will be semi persistent due to the transition of the weather phenomena in the Massive body of water called the Pacific Ocean that is going from warm to cold. There is a warm u shaped body of water of the North American Coast – this is at record levels too and this is called the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). What this is causing is called a feedback loop in the atmosphere where the EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) – it is in Alaska – why we call it this does not make sense to me – goes negative causing cooler air to sink in a south easterly direction and it then promotes a trough to build in the East. The other part of the feedback to this is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which if goes Negative will cause blocking that will lock in the trough. NOW if the NAO goes N (negative) in the summer without the EPO being N then what that will do is lock in the heat.

The Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will be prominent this summer and where it sets up and or expands/strengthens will be whether we see heat waves of 90 degree days or some of 100 degree plus days – yes no kidding. I feel this will take place from mid-Julyish through August. I think August will be the hottest month of the summer due to the La Nina kicking in.

 

Lovely hair weather right in the map above?

Oh boy lots of skin and lotion up next here peeps! This will be the shores this summer!

TEMPERATURES

June – I feel will be about Normal TO BELOW NORMAL

July – 1-3* above normal

August – 2-4* above normal

90* days :

24 NYC

28 Newark

40 Philadelphia

100* days

2 NYC

2-3 Newark

3 plus Philadelphia

 

Heat Index 100 plus

4-6 plus NYC

5 -7 plus Newark

76plus Philadelphia

 

Precipitation

June – Normal to slightly above

July – Slightly below

August – Below normal

I think we will have A LOT of T-REX storms (thunderstorms) and some severe, maybe the most severe t-storms in a while.

 

 

H’cane Season Outlook

With the La Nina taking over in the Pacific this will mean the trade winds will dimming greatly which is the reason why we had really few hurricanes the last 3 years – we were below normal for each season and this was due to EL Nino which promotes strong trade winds.

The Atlantic is in a tri pole state where we have colder waters in the north just south of Greenland and warm waters in the waster Atlantic and colder waters near the MDR Zone or the equator/tropics. The Caribbean waters and Gulf Of Mexico are above normal and warm. These are the areas where I can see Cyclones forming and strengthening/intensifying quickly sometimes if conditions permit along the narrow area.

 

I do not think we will get storms forming out over the Atlantic off the coasts of Africa so to speak due to the fact the conditions do not favor such. The Hurricanes will be forming in these three regions – Western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico.

 

Number of Named Storms (Tropical Storms and H’canes)– 12-16

Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) – 2-4

Landfall – 7 to 11

 

NOAA’s prediction

 

Now the Bermuda high position will be a major factor as to where these beasts will make landfall. If it is more west than east in teh Atlantic then these storms get tracked right into America from Florida up to New England.

 

We have had two named storms so far so my prediction includes them. All it takes is for a one of these storms to make landfall in teh NYC Metro area to wreck havoc and despair.

Lastly, the season will not get going till the later half, second half of the H’cane season August through  October maybe even into early November as nuts as that may sound. East coast is going to have pay close attention to these as the summer moves on (late again).

 

I hope you enjoyed the information presented and this is just my amateur opinion and research on what is to come.

Stay cool, get that AC checked out and have a great summer!!!

 

Al Q

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