Al Mugno
By Al Mugno December 25, 2015 09:39



Santa Claus came and went last night in shorts and Gini T and the poor old guy was sweating his you know what off! Record breaking days here peeps no two ways about it and we set a record high, record low and played a few vinyls from the 60’s and 70’s in between (catch that one? Quinn, Buehler?) Okay the GW’s (global warmers) are all pounding their chest and fist pumping about this abnormally warm weather. Okay, now you have your days and months (Nov – Dec), time to shine and make millions more off of the poor ill informed, slanted media yellow journalism feed public.  Even the POPE is in on this !!!This show is about to get derailed, shut down, close the curtain, blown up. Why? Cause Mr. Heat Miser

is going to be boarding a train Monday and may not see him until mid/late March – HAHAHA because this guy whom I affectionately refer to as Snowy is kickin’ his bros arse out!! Heat Miser as yuo can see is not happy – NA NA NA, HEYT HEY HEY GOOD BYE!!

I aM going to be blown away meself with my December prediction for temps in my winter outlook – I called for +1-+3 degrees above normal – well I can handle being wrong unlike so many in our society and I will freely and honestly admit to this. We are like 12 degrees above normal – heck not everyone can get a 100 all the time. We will finish about +10 degrees when all is said and done – set a record for Dec as the all time warmest. Who remembers last February and how brutal it was?? Raise your hands please stop the bemoaning – yes, yes I know – it was 14 degrees below normal and I called for 6 degrees – so it goes both ways now.

Christmas miracles:

One –  My old boss Dr. Ralph Musco received word that he is free of cancer as per his pet scan from a week ago. He helped shape me during my early years as a teacher and I am so happy for him.  A month ago they found a mass in his chest and the follow up scan showed nothing so God is Great – God Bless you Ralph!!

Two – There was no drama this Xmas Eve in my home – you know how family can be!! (maybe one but ralph’s story takes that spot and rightfully so!)

Three – My old neighbors who  moved a few towns over surprised and stopped by – walked right in the front door – woop woop. Steve and Robin great family and people – love them and their kids!

Four – I was in shorts and t-shirts all day yesterday preparing for my 20 guests, and slept with my window open =- reallyyy?????

Five – The Oakland Raiders, my favorite team, won their last home game at the Oakland Coliseum and they did in OT and for Charles Woodson. So great and apropos (how about that word their AQ- lawyer term – Dawn G. – my newest weather weenie is impressed I can tell!!) that he goes out after a remarkable 18 year career with my team on a high note at home. Listen, growing up in the 70’s the Giants and Jets well sucked!! Even into the early 1980’s – yes the sack exchange of the Jets and yada yada yada but the Raiders were always in the playoffs and were fun to watch, I am and will be the underdog grit type of fan – not the mega bucks type (though I am an avid rangers fan!! LGR!!) Also, most importantly my brother loved the Jest so to get back at him for teasing me to no end I went against the team that owned them. Second pro game at Giants Stadium 1980 – Dec 20th for me bday my dad took me, my cousin Neil and his friend – wind chill – 5 – last until half time score was 24-0 Raiders,  Giants fans burning tix in the parking lot before the game – enough said. Rant on – How teh hell does the NFL not induct Ken Stabler nor Tom Flores (first hispanic head coach won two Super Bowls in convincing fashion as again an underdog??)) into the Hall of Fame?? – This is ludicrous. Tuck game – oh boy that is for another day – Kuz you love to bring this up at lunch!!



Okay Tuesday the 29th peeps – from what pattern we are in people are going to be naysayers and is it really going to get cold or like Petar the mad Bulgarian at work said “no snow, you crazy” – welllllllllllllllllllllll. YOU CRAZY!!!!!! And the weather pattern is going to change – pattern change here peeps – big friggin’ stuff Teddy, by the 7-10th timeframe. Wowza the models where well like Maxim magazine to a teenagers last night – catch my drift?? Oh and why am I writing you this morning – my son accidently turned on his alarm clock and it went off at 6:45 – hey I can and always will (Mush can atest to this as well as my lovely wife Christine) sleep through a bomb or a child crying!! But once I am up I am up (for the day (easy there Guerci!!)) So how better to pass teh tiem then blog especially with such exciting news to share on this most joyous and special day! Pro mets aren’t buying it yet but you’ll see they come around to AL Q.

Here we go now – Cold front sweeps through on Sunday night temps drop from shorts weather to heavy sweats and jackets. People are going to poop their pants with this but TOO FRIGGIN BAD it is winter!! Then a Low Pressure system forms over the South West and it tries to cut to our north but CANADA saves the day!! – How well the Canadian model called teh CM<C was the first to sniff out this storm and second they will gives a High Pressure system that will hang up there and say no no you ain’t comin into my house now!! And it will shunt it east. Tricky and thread the needle set up – ever try that – always takes a couple of tries, like that hot girl in high school, couple of tries!

Snow front end to ice to rain – stop bell aching SNOW QUEEN cause the pattern we are in is putrid, disgusting, blah blah blah!! My 2″+ for Dec may be right after all – we shall see.

Maps Please:





We North and West – Guerci your haw dag country home (80 miles nw of NYC) will see mostly snow and ice – woo hooooooooo!!

Aren’t these colors beautiful-  i have a feeling we are going to see a lot of these the next 8 or so weeks – yes no shit there I said  I feel better now:



A little over done but I see about 2″ plus front end for NNJ and that is counting sleet/ice accumulations then we change over to rain. Heck again thread the needle and of the storm ejects faster (like …………) we see mostly snow if the HP slides out faster we see rain or if it doesn’t nose down as far we see ice to rain.


Now for the rest:

Winter Pattern has been evolving for the last couple of weeks and still is. Siberian Snow pack that I spoke about in October is going to cause the polar Vortex to elongate, shift off the North Pole and possibly split.


The MJO  and not Austin Powers

ot-video type=”youtube” url=”https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjXkICEl_fJAhWCwiYKHV3zAPYQtwIIHjAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DJBHKVAs85Ko&usg=AFQjCNEZGlirce9oi1dQSE8_tGI-VxMx9Q&bvm=bv.110151844,d.eWE”]

but like him is going into more favorable hases for us East Coast Fol;k – screw the west I say they have had a ton of snow and cold so far – time to share with us fellow Americans!

Check it out we are coming around the horn:



Phase 7, 8 and 1 are very favorable for cold and storms on the East Coast.  Phases 4-6 = warm and wet for us.


Look at the left side of this compilation map of the MJO phases – Oh and this is why I was explaining in my last blog about the Indian OCean – this is where it takes affect:

These are the areas of the MJO phases:

Now the El Nino is going to help take over once this MJO wave goes into Region 7 and 8 by causing a tremendous downwelling effect on our atmosphere. The models show this going forward and it is beautiful to us winter weather weenies:

MADONNNNNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEE – you do not see this very often!!



You see that deep red over NW Canada – this is due to the El Nino Trop Convection that is going on near the international dateline – it is going to pump those heights over NW Canada and then cause a dip in the jet – but even better is the deep red over Scandinavia – love those folks – that is our -NAO – that is on roids peeps like ARoid from the Yankees! It forms a frickin “Polar Bridge” right over the North Pole!! Incredible – cold air is going to finally pour down into the eastern half of the US and those heights in the NW CAn is our PNA that also forms an negative EPO like we had in……………….Late Jan and Feb last year – oh boy I say!! Incredible to see a PNA morph into a – PEO and a -NAO Scandinavian Ridge but then again so is this weather we are having presently.

This means going forward from Tuesday through mid March (I hope  HAHAHA!!)we see cold and storm chances. The pattern may relax a day or two in Jan and give us the thaw but hen reload and when it does it will be even stronger – thanks to this guy for working on breaking the PV dam:

He is causing the PV to dislodge over the North Pole and elongate and he will hopefully split this bad boy come late Jan – if so MOMMA MIA!!!!


This is extremely cold air in the gray and wow if this filters down from 30,000 feet Feb could be one for the record book just like we are in now -= comes full circle and a xmas miracle.

I am very excited about the pattern change and the any nay’s whop I have been fighting with all month long on my weather boards will be eating crow soon, can’t you hear it my writing teh excitement about this upcoming pattern change, ski lovers it is coming as well.

God Bless you all on this Christmas and updates to come.


Al Q


Al Mugno
By Al Mugno December 25, 2015 09:39
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