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Light White Gold, Ugly warm up, then RELOAD

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 28, 2016 13:18

Peeps,

Tomorrow we will see some more white gold as I said n my last post we could see some light snow, snow shower tomorrow and it looks to be that maybe dusting/coating (what the h is the difference I know semantics to a degree) to 1/2″for most to possibly 1″ for the Western LI and SW CT peeps as per the latest model runs. Speaking of did anyone see teh new Sports Illustrated swim suite issue?? WOW! Christie Brinkley, Kathy Ireland of the day were the BOMB but these young ladies are right here WOWZA!! Okay back to the weather models:

 

1-2.5 mm = dusting/coating to .5″ I love the colors of this map makes me feel good inside especially when we see yellow and red – that makes me feel really good!! Purple would be amazing.

 

 

Let’s  see if this verifies above.

Sunday through WED is above normal no not abby normal well yes it is – Young Frankenstein anyone??

 

Like I said in my post  from the other day SUNDAY thru WEDNESDAY WITH A CUTTER:

SUN

 

CULMINATING WED

RELOAD :

 

_EPO/+PNA and -AO over Hudson Bay with a Block showing up over the Greenland land mass will be giving us teh opportunity for cold and storms:

LEADS TO THIS TEMPERATURE WISE

 

 

 

THAT IS SOME COLD AIR PEEPS!!

This is what I posted on my NJ Strong Weather Forum:

TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!

Another board I belong to posted a map of how strong this will become and will cancel out the MJO t o a degree during this next time frame and it will all start after this cutter passes through Tues/Wed and then we go back to winter. You all need to remember that when a pattern reloads it is usually stronger – 1978, 1996, 2003, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 – all examples  whether it was a few days or a week when the pattern relaxes  and it reloads and goes BOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!!

In my opinion I see this winter as a repeat of 1978 to a degree – big surprise storm at the end of Jan., a relaxation afterwards and then MOMMA MIA – but this Nino is stronger so more juice for the storms. Snow goes away but what can we do just take it and move on, it is not your health.

 

The outgoing longwave radiation (or the OLR) is the amount of energy emitted to space by Earth. Low values usually indicate cold temperatures while high values are warm areas of the globe.

The minimum in OLR, or the longwave emitted flux near the equator is due to the high cloud tops associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a region of persistent thunderstorms. This minimum migrates about the equator as seen in the monthly mean maps, and is also seen as a maximum in albedo. Notice how it is difficult to observe the oceanic stratus regions we observed in the albedo maps. This is because the temperature of the clouds is similar to the surrounding oceans, making it difficult to observe.

This is where I have been harping on and some so not get why we have a break – heck everything in our universe needs a break but remember after teh break is what is going to matter – slow start strong finish – we have been saying this all  along – once and we saw this the last 2 weeks – the Trop forcing takes over then we have an enormous amount of heat that will be rising into our atmosphere at the dateline region in the form of T-storms which will cause MANY things to occur. that said the MANY things are called feed back that you see us talk about here. That feed back means the conditions in the atmosphere react to this heat. Just like fluid dynamics that cold goes to hot – basic principle right so what is happening is teh GOA LP which is cold is fighting itself and saying I want to stay on the west coast but it is now traveling to the light at the end of the tunnel which is this massive amount of heat out by 155W and the dateline. This cold LP is going to what we call retrograde to this region and sit above it hanging out and slowly lose its strength as the warm air advects towards it and start to eat away at it. This will allow the PDO that is in a positive state – warm waters off teh WC of teh USA to rise this raising the Heights in the Alaskan region filing the void of the GOA LP that moved out – it is like my dog – when I get up off the couch she jumps and lays in my spot on the couch. this in turn builds a NEG EPO over Alaska and it draws the cold air from north and west of it thus Siberia or a cross polar flow. The PNA heights rise in the West Coast allowing for storms to come NE or N depending on it orientation for our storms. Thus a trough will build in the SE and East due to this rise of air and we have a set up that is conducive for storms and cold weather. What else occurs is this massive heat release in the region can have an effect on the Poles as all of this warm air builds into the Alaskan Region I have read that it can help with the dislodging of the Polar Vortx or splitting. Also, the heat release from the massive and deep snow extent over Siberia – remember rocky my chia pet- also will aid in this process as well. How ? Well a massive High Pressure sits over this region thus reflecting the suns heat (white -snow reflects light and light is heat) into the atmosphere which will add heat to this region which in turn will help again dislodge the PV and also help build a NEG NAO to a degree through feedback. Does it happen all the time like this…………..NO! BUT the pieces are their and like with our last Riodzilla this is what we can ask for with this set up. If I missed anything or misinterpreted explained something be my guess and comment or correct me. This is just one mans knowledge plus some trying to keep it simple here peeps.

So what am I saying………………TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! cheers cheers cheers cheers

Once we can get the pattern to set it is usually stubborn to move from what I have researched – 1958, 1978 (top analogs to a degree) are examples where once they locked in there were weeks of cold and snow storms.

 

SNOWFALL TOTALS: HILLSDALE,NJ -avg. 35″)

2014-15 : 55.12″ +.02 for 6 coatings
2015-16 12-28-29 0.4″ Snow/Sleet
1-14 .2″ Snow
1-23 22″ SNOW

Total – 22.6″ (Avg 35″)

Have a great day and let’s hope we can get some white again tomorrow.

AL Q.

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 28, 2016 13:18
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1 Comment

  1. Jappa January 28, 15:26

    Mr. Nino is messing us up again.

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