TROPICAL !!, July Recap, August Simmer, Hcane Season, Winter 16-17?

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 10, 2016 11:09

Peeps,

I am back after a hiatus due to a wonderful family vacation in Me-he -co (Mexico) at an all-inclusive. You know that is the way to go I am convinced all you need is as they say in Europe – Pass-e-porte – and a credit card. Oh some cash –singles, two dollar bills (they love them), finskies for the waiters dinner and a Jackson or two (soon to be no more) for the maid. The other foreigners do not tip AT ALL which is ridiculous in my honest opinion. Okay let’s get to the weather shall we:

July – well we were +2 -3 degrees above normal temps wise – hmmmmmm……. Let’s look at my post back in May for July and when we would turn shallst we please (hey I said please!) June – I feel will be about Normal TO BELOW NORMAL

From NJ Strong Weather Forum

 

“July – 1-3* above normal” – NAILED IT BIAGI!! BOOYAHHH BABY!!

Precipitation I called for “July – Slightly below”  (SBN) – MALO by me – we received 6” of wetness and were WAYYYYYY above normal – let’s hope I am wrong in this fashion come winter and my favorite………………WHITE GOLD!!!!!!

 

August Simmer

Madonne we are going to bake with heat and excessive humidity – we will see dew point sin the 70’s and some areas 80’ with lots of wetness – GFS saying mow the lawn and bring in da furniture cause we ain’t hangin’ on the patio the next 4-5 days (Aug10-16 timeframe)

The Bermuda high like I said in my outlook is building and expanding westward at the 500MB level – this will pump the tropical moistures straight from the hot tub of the Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic. Peeps the Western Atlantic and GOM are off the charts warm.

Heat indices are going to be 98*-105* through Sunday some topping this 105* so take caution if doing outdoor activities.

My call in the Summer outlook for August …”August – 2-4* above normal”

Wetness – Yuck it has already started:

 

RGEM is only through Saturday here:

 

INCOMING – RADAR

 

 

This leads me to H’cane Season.

I felt the outer bands one evening from Category 1 Hurricane Earl that went South West thank God and not NW or else I would have experienced this bad boy. Here is my video from my hotel room – pretty nuts – lasted about 20 minutes.

The Hurricanes will not be chugging across the Atlantic even though the Sahara dust has died down which it usually does this time of year and the MDE (Main Development Region) is not prime for cyclone development at his time and may not be for August. The Walker Cell in the Indian Ocean and Eastern Pacific will have an effect on the Hcanes as well and does not seen conducive for Trop Cyclone Development in the MDR region for the next 2 weeks. BUT the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Western Atlantic cannot be ruled out and are favorable for such to occur closer to land if one is to see such. Look I said mid to Late August we’d see trop activity ramp up – maybe a bit more delayed into Sept but the ingredients for the powder keg are there with a warm ocean, static trade winds and a drop in Sahara Dust levels and an expansive Bermuda High. WE shall see but I am of the positive mind frame we will see an active timeframe for trop cyclones and the east Coast needs to be pay attention – not alarmist style.

Calls from my SO (Summer Outlook)

90* days :

24 NYC

28 Newark

40 Philadelphia

So far as by my boy SARCUS from the USAwx Forum:

2016:

PHL: 25 (Apr: 0  ; May:  3; Jun: 5 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 1 ; Sep:
NEWARK-EWR: 23 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug:1 ; Sep:
TRENTON-TTN: 20 (Apr: 0  ; May: 2  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 13; Aug:1 ; Sep:
LGA: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 1; Jul : 15;  Aug: 1 ; Sep:
ACY: 18 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 4  ; Jul: 12; Aug: 1; Sep:
TETEBORO – TEB: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun : ; Jul: 15; Aug: 1; Sep:
NYC: 12  (Apr: 0 ; May: 2  ; Jun: ; Jul: 10; Aug: ; Sep:
JFK: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0  ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: ; Sep:

 

100* days (SO)                    2016:

2 NYC                                     1

2-3 Newark                           1

3 plus Philadelphia              2

 

Heat Index 100 plus (SO)     2016:

4-6 plus NYC                             4

5 -7 plus Newark                       5

6-7 plus Philadelphia               6

 

Winter 16-17????? REALLY AL Q??

Really you ask. Hey this is what most if not all weather weenies live for and you know you love it too so get over it and get ready, the nights are getting longer with each passing day. Joe Bastardi posted yesterday his thoughts on this upcoming winter:

August 8 04:55 PM
There is no doubt I am fired up about the winter, but as per the last 4 winters, thinking JFM is the core of the winter. However in the winter forecast we emphasized that there was some worry about a faster start. In any case the European, by again weakening the cold enso signal, leaves the warm water ring in the Pacific and the warm western Atlantic as the dominant 2 factors. If this is to be and blocking is as we see in low geomagnetic , it offers the threat of winters that can resemble the 95-96 winter. Certainly the SST analog, which amazingly has some similarities to the Euro has been hinting that way which would make sense since it has a weak enso signal at best
59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing.
My big worry is as stated before ( outside of the idea the La Nina could be strong, but I think that is fading) that its a matter of when, not if. Our updated winter forecast is later this month .
But count me as someone that liked the look of the Euro, as to where it put troughs and ridges and its usual problems with actually finding any cold in the longer range, so that “normal” is a significant hint.

We have an inclination/idea due to the Ocean Sea Surface Temperature profiles and compare them to years gone by that we have records for look below.

I said in a post in July we could and I stress could see a colder and above normal snowfall season for our upcoming winter. With a weak La Nina coming into play and a Modoki set up in the making this may help this inclination at this juncture in time. Other factors include the sun activity of course and the butterfly effect as well as Mongolian sneezing for God’s sake (being funny here). You can see the pretty blue streak in teh equatorial Pacific and another streak from the west coast of North America all teh way to Japan but look above that to teh north what does one see huh?? I boiling pot of water in the Gulf of Alaska and Bearing Sea  – those could be the drivers for our upcoming winter peeps ala 1983-84 and 13-14,-14-15 are comparison years. 95-96 is the absolute king peeps and that would send some over the edge if we get a repeat but this guy woudl be rejoicing and partying as the great Prince said like its 1999 after he sang this platinum song in 1984/85!

JB just released his DEC -FEB temps maps – MADONNE!! CAN you say a white xmass – PLEASE PLEASE SANTA I”LL BE A GOOD BOY I SWEAR _ I’LL START RIGHT NOW!!!

Now the sun which we crave as humans for life, Vitamin D etc.

Sunspots are low this year but have flared up as of late and could be another influence on teh upcoming winter. IF and I say if we have this prolonged Medium to moderate flare activity it could cause the polar vortex to solidify as it did this past winter and consolidate like the banks did in teh early/mid 1990’s in the USA (mergers and acquisitions galore peeps!). SO keep an eye to the sky and we’ll see what is what, look at the chart below for this activity. It is getting active and we need it to calm down which I think it will since we are reaching what is called a solar minimum in teh next decade – that’s right decade peeps.

MONTH              FLUX   TREND   SUNSPOT#    TREND     SUNSPOT# (RI)        FLARE MAX     FLARE  TOTALS
-------------     -----   -----   --------    -----     ---------------      ---------     -- M --- X --

August   2016                                                                  M1.3           1     0 
July     2016      85.9     UP        36.8      UP       19.5      UP          M7.6           7     0  
June     2016      81.9    down       19.9     down      12.5     down         C6.5           0     0             
May      2016      93.1    down       48.9      UP       31.3      UP          C8.4           0     0
April    2016      93.4     UP        39.2     down      22.8     down         M6.7           1     0
March    2016      91.6    down       40.9     down      32.9     down         C3.7           0     0
February 2016     103.5               56.0      UP       34.3      UP          M1.8           4     0
January  2016     103.5    down       50.4     down      34.0     down         M2.3           1     0

 

. Also,  we have a good number of days without activity so far this year in comparison

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 20 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 10 Aug 2016

 

Enough for now I think and the next four days are going to be in one word – TROPICAL!!

 

Updates to come.

 

Al Q

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 10, 2016 11:09
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