FLIP & HARD, CLIP, THERMAL ALERT & POTENTIAL……………………….!!

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 10, 2016 10:34

Peeps,

 

AS I write you I hear the rain hitting my window and wounds running through my yard. I know what happened to the 9th through 13th snowstorm potential right? It was just that potential! The Arctic front that is going to come through tonight was about 12 hours to late and or the storm was that much earlier. Timing is everything and things happen I guess for a reason.

FLIP & HARD : Like a great Olympic Gymnast our pattern is going dso a flip on the dismount of the uneven parallel bars!! What him say (this how my Bulgarian custodian who is a brilliant man speaks to me when asking me to repeat myself)? We are going to go from an almost record high today down into  the low 30’s and upper 20’s by tomorrow morning. From Jan 10th for the next 15 days we are cold and below normal temps wise.

 

Today:

 

Overnight:

 

SO you see do not be fooled by the HEAT MISER cause I think MOMMA has literally had enough of him as I have too!!

I don’t want to leave – ugghhhhh!!

 

AND here is our winter warlock friend – SNOWY!!

 

See you later HM!! It is my turn now – muuuhahahaha!!

 

CLIP: Not a haircut – I got a wonderful present for xmass from my wife – a new Wahl stainless steel clipper set with a frickin’ case -wooo hoooo, this is for me and my sons haircuts – yes I do this as well as weather!! Oh yes the CLIP title – our friend from the great land of my first namesake – Alberta! Alberta Clippers are mini storms that form over the NW provinces of Canada – the Alberta area and streak down through the Great Lakes and usually bring us snow showers and some times light accumulating snows. This will happen – coating to 1/2″ is progged at this time from the latest model run but I will update this tomorrow evening as we get the storm in a better sampling area – where we can have better information not just a satellite image – this is like making a decision by seeing one aspect instead of the four others!

 

This storm is important for two reasons – one it will bring in very cold arctic air hence my Thermal Alert and two it will then set the stage for a storm or series of storms next week – hopefully – fingers and toes crossed!

 

THERMAL ALERT: Yes peeps we have one again for the end of this week with temps at night low to mid teens !!

gfs_T2m_neus_18

POTENTIAL:

We are about to embark on what COULD be a very memorable and possibly historic week plus of weather – well storms, yes the plural. AS i have been harping on my weather forum(s) that this pattern change is going to be 180 from what we experience in Nov and Dec with cold and storminess – even spoke this in my winter outlook. The STJ (Sub Tropical Jet) is going to be active not just because of El Nino – which is dying a fast death as I write, but because of many different atmospheric factors at play – MJO, PDO, Tropical Forcing, EPO, PNA, AO, NAO and Polar Vortex which by the end is progged to split or be displaced by the week of  Jan 20th – Thor is still hard at work!! To much to write about all this now so look at my winter outlook tab and that will explain this.

We have a powder keg of atmospheric conditions at play and what we need are them to come together – IF they do then it will be orgasmic for a snow weenie like me and some of you – I kid you not.

 

Who is ready for a MLK special?? Snow, wind, cold , more snow, no school, state of emergency?? You know what it is. Oh wait Christie will not be here no SOE so ……….he is still trying to be president of the ………….LOSER”S CLUB!! Bail out already – to much ego to accept defeat – maybe his friend the Donald should tell him to go home!

The time period are Jan 17-19 and 22-23 and again the 26th time frame. There are some many storms that are in the pipe line and if one or two come together we could see a HECS (Historical east Coast Storm) or even the phrase I coined a few years back BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). These are timeframes for POSSIBLE storms. They could slide S&E of here, they could graze us, the could not phase and be weaker storms but still bring us significant snows or they could be beasts and cripple us (yeah no poop!). Many solutions if not all are on the table at this time.

This is what the GFS – stands for GooFuS model – showed this past week – this is a crippling blizzard – PLEEEEASSE do not go running around  on face book, twitter, instagram etc saying this is coming and cause a viral panic. We are 7 days away so temper your emotions and wait for the AL Q to sound the general quarters and then run around like an idiot and buy dozens of eggs, gallons of milk,  loaves of bread, alcohol (biggest sales when a snowstorm hits – no lie!) and soup or take to the social media and warn the common folk!

 

 

So recap:

  1. Warm and rainy today – Heat Miser on his way out of town and Snowy coming back to stay for good 15 day stretch – if we get the PV to split then Snowy stays  A LOT longer but Feb looks to be the prime month.
  2. Thermals Alert – cold very cold end of the week
  3. Storm potential next week – many storms in the pipeline that models will have a tough time handling  all of this energy. Just need the players to come to the table to break bread at the right time (timing again) and we could have a very memorable stretch.
  4. IF we get this or these storms then the temp profiles will change for what i sto be a thaw come teh end of Jan into the first couple of days of Feb.

PS – Gasoline prices are going to dive as the SAudi flooded teh markets with oil in response to crushing the Iranians economically and the Russians – white collar way of taking someone down. NJ will be down generally to $1.50 range – some stations are there already for cash in SNJ and Newark. We should be here for a few weeks to months as long as the corp oil tycoons don’t count their money!

Updates to come.

 

Al Q

 

 

 

 

 

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno January 10, 2016 10:34
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