Gasoline Prices, Irma (Finally!), Insult to Injury, Haa vy (still)

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 30, 2017 20:37

Peeps,

Gasoline Prices

What a joke here peeps what am I referring to? Gasoline prices last nigh were st to go up .10 cents a gallon today and now possibly >25 more cents a gallon. Why? the massive flooding in Houston has knocked out the country’s top refinery that refines 23% of gasoline from black gold (crude oil). My problem is the gasoline that is in the tanks underground were priced at a lower cost. This is highway robbery and just preposterous in my book. Don’t be shocked if yuo see prices reaching the $2.70 range for NJ and if another storm hits the Texas coast as depicted below in insult to injury then we could see $3 easily. remember Katrina?? I went to soccer practice and gasoline was $2.55 when I came home from practice 3 hours later the price went to $2.95!! WTH??

 

Irma

Finally, after the tropical storm warning storm for the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras NC wasn’t named for why ahh foowee I’ll move on we have IRMA as my boy and mini meteorologist K Dog Conrad as he is so affectionately called. We have two scenarios setting up already one that takes Irma into the Caribbean and then OTS (Out to Sea) as a major Category 4 Hcane. That same model the GFS brings it up the coast about 150 miles off the NJ Coast as a CAT 4 but this would still do serious damage to the coast and MYC Metro let alone Long Island. The EURO which is known for its better physics for tropical systems do to its latent heat formulas that it computes has a VERY SCARY SCENERIO! The CAT 4 (just like Harvey that crushed the Texas coast has the systems pinned between the WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) and the deep trough over the Great Lakes. It slams Irma into the SE coast and then she goes on a joy ride a destruction all the way up the eastern seaboard to Cape Cod and then into Maine.

Now what can change? Lots of course. But what is happening with this pattern is going to be derived by a pacific cyclone called Sanvu. When it recurves which it is modelled to do it will then go into the Gulf of Alaska region and its counter flow will pump a ridge in the Western USA. If that cyclone is strong as modeled or stronger it will pump the ridge even greater. This will have effects downstream as we say and on the other side of the ridge we have a trough – like a rollercoaster folks is the best analogy. The deeper or bigger the ridge the deeper the trough and it sharpens it. It can then pull more on Irma and bring her into the coast and pull her North. The other feature that has a profound effect is what we call the WAR – Western Atlantic Ridge. If it is more expansive and stronger than modelled, then she will have nowhere to go but into the Northeast coast – a block is what we call it. If she feels a weakness in the block as the GFS is depicted, then she will run that over and escape OTS. The only problem is the GSF being not a good tropical model when systems form below the 20-degree parallel. Time will tell but nonetheless she is going to be a BEAST!! And the Caribbean country (ies) that stand in her way HOLY SNIKES!!

The time frame is Sept 12thish through the 16th for our region as I write.

EURO set up

eps_slp_c_ma_61.png.e8f09af8eff55d5a8bb6

DIg2V5mUEAA4N6A.jpg

e_us_coast_cdas1_anom.png

Warm Anomalous waters off the Atlantic above that would easily fuel this storm!!

Insult to Injury

Okay if this does happen as the GFS is showing to the Texas Coast and La that land will be sold like Napoleon did 2 hundred years ago!! This would be decimating if it happened.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_scus_29.png

Haa vy

Saturday night/evening (earlier since the sun goes down at 7:30 now peeps – YUCK!) through Sunday morning we can expect the remnants of Haa vy to pass through here and bring us rain. WE should salvage Sunday afternoon at this time.

 

 

Updates to come.

Al Q

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno August 30, 2017 20:37

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 170 other subscribers

POSTED FORECASTS

September 2017
M T W T F S S
« Aug    
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930