Happy Fall, Ophelia Tropical Depression Remnants, FALL TEMPS Inbound

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 24, 2023 19:11

Peeps,

 

Happy Fall!!

Harvest Time Happy Fall by Michael Mullan

Only 90 days until the start of winter!!! And it is shaping up with some strong indicators coming into play for a good, solid winter!!

FromMark Margavage

1993-1994 and 2009-2010 are the closest analogues to the current state of the QBO that I could find

Image

 

Image

QBO at 30mb has turned negative and it will continue to descend into winter. The last El Niño winter with -QBO was 2014/15.

 

December to rememeber if this map verifies?

Image

 

Ophelia Tropical Depression Remnants

Ophelia was what we call a home grown tropical system that formed in close off the SE coast . It ramped up pretty quickly and IF there was no dry air on its eastern flank this could have ramped up to a moderate CAT 1 and stayed further east BUT that did not happen thank God.

So what do we expect up here from this storm that is now a slow moving tropical depression? Rain and winds and more rain. Here is the latest storm track.

 

GFS says it will rain toriugh………………..Tuesday!!!!!!!!!!

How much rain?

How’s 1.5 to 3 inches sound!

FALL TEMPS Inbound

After this Nor’easter hybrid storm we will have linger thorugh Tuesday it looks then the temps get real fall like. How fall like you ask, how about heat maybe needed for the NNJ, LHV, HV region!

40’s at night!

Tuesday Night -low 50’s

 

Wed/Thurs/Fri

 

 

 

I ask for prayers for one of my good freinds and ardent AL Q weather weenies PB. His wife who I asked for prayers for with her battle to attain a liver transplant passed away this week at home with her family at her side. PB met Mary in Kindergarten and they celebrated their 50th anniversary on Spet 1st of meeting in Kindergarten (probably the greatest grade for all – “Everything I know I learned in Kindergarten”). May she be in God’s Kingdom and will always be with her beloved PB and her children Michael and Kelly who just married 3 weeks ago. Life is short peeps, you never know when God is going to call you home, take you from your pain, sufferring on this planet, flesh that we are bound in. God Bless Mary and may she rest in God’s Eternal Peace.

There is a GoFundMe for the Brennan family, if anyone would like to contribute to help cover the medical costs that have amounted.

 

Keep the faith an dlet God and his son along with their holy spirits guide you and protect you in this last week of September, first week of fall it will surely feel like it!!

 

Updates to come.

 

Al Q

 

PS For Cuz Laura and Dabeed (Dave in Spanish)

That 999 low pressure is going to make for a bumpy go if by boat but shoud stay N of Bermuda for clear weather at this time.

Al Mugno
By Al Mugno September 24, 2023 19:11

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