Over performed, Back to Snow, Snow Squalls, Frigid !!
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Peeps,
Well that was a nice surprise today with about 1″ being measured in Allendale before it changed over to a mix then rain. PB is all snow and has about 3″ up there and will windup with about 5-6″ when all is said and done in the ruburbs as will Brit up in Orange County.
Ray M loved the call and is one of my most ardent weather weenies hailing from the Highlands of Mahwah!
Now the question I have been asked 10000x today by 1000 different peeps (mostly students)
#1 Are we going to have a snow day tomorrow?
Not likely unless something drastic happens overnight or things ice up real bad which is possible as the winds change direction to the WNW tonight.
#2 Will we have a delayed opening?
That is more in the cards IMO but on a scale of 1- 10 with one being the most likely I say about a 4 at this time.
The NWS just released their update and it says this:
The height falls continue at 500mb. The main shortwave moving
along the southeast periphery of a longwave trough moves near
and south of the region this evening. The will increase positive
vorticity advection making for a bulk of precip between 00-06Z
Wed.
There will be potential for widespread snow on the back end
with the cold air advection on the W-NW flow late this evening
into the overnight. This will be quite brief for locations east
of NYC. The front itself with low pressure developing along it
moves across. The increase in low level omega will provide
vertical forcing and drier air infiltrating the region will
allow for wet bulb cooling with the lingering rain transitioning
along coastal areas to lingering snow.
For interior areas and now including Northern New Haven, will
have most snow accumulation in the evening, mostly 3-5 inches.
So, winter weather advisory includes same areas as before but
now includes Northern New Haven CT.
Will have to watch for coastal areas turning back over to snow
on back side of low with that colder air advecting in on the
westerly flow. High end potential for around 2 inches of snow at
the coast with this but likely 1 inch or less while interior
areas could get 1-2 inches higher than forecast. Temperatures
overnight into early Wed drop below freezing making for areas of
black ice.
Brief high pressure enters the region late tonight with a
decrease in clouds. Cold air advection continues on the westerly
flow which will become more gusty. Lows were taken from a
consensus of raw data, mid teens to mid 20s for most of the
area.
This means what to you peeps:
That the snow looks to change over quickly tonight around 8PM ish in NE NJ – and we in the NNJ land from the GSP and all the way west down to hills of Essex and Somerset County can see snow last until about 5/6am with temps dropping to the 20’s and teens = icy conditions.
I hold with my forecast:
For us as 1-3 NYC Metro – just outside
N&W outside 15 miles – 2-5″ – Western Passaic, Western Bergen and into Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties
NWNJ and Orange Counties 4-6″ plus
SNOW SQUALLS tomorrow from about 11-5PM and these are gonna be wild peeps – mini blizzards – snowfall can be up to 2 to maybe 3″ if they trend stronger and gain some width which some models are indicating. Whiteout conditions and winds gusty to 30/35 mph in the heart of the squall.
This squall line will stretch from Albany to Delaware – YIKES
Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize
Close Up of wind chills that will give us a higher probability of a D.O. come Thursday morning
Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize
We could have another system Thursday night and then another Saturday – boy am I gonna be busy LOL!!
Thursday Night
Saturday
We briefly warm up Sun and Monday and then we get ready for the February that has been touted by many in the pro met weather world as the MJO looks to go into the winter death grip of……………..Phase………………………………….BOX CARS!!
8
This is what I mean – Thursday Feb 7th Night please after 10 PM
After our big Fundraiser for my son Hockey Team – A Comedy night at the Saloon in Pearl River – if you want to attend this great night tix are $35pp from 7:30 – 10PM a friggin fun night! You will love the show!
http://pvhockey2019.brownpapertickets.com/
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Have a great night and be careful commuting in the morning and the afternoon with these squalls. I’ll update tomorrow in the AM about the squalls.
Al Q
