Related Articles

• HAPPY WINTER!!! White XMASS? Heat Miser and Snow fight it out next week!
• Another March Snowstorm – Son of Stella, Rocky?
• MARCH is going to ROARRRRRRRRRRRR!!! WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING! POSSIBLY TUES. NIGHT INTO WED. AND THURSDAY 0 27.Feb

Peeps,

Way to kick off!!….FALL

Here we go peeps! And ready, set, go…………………….BOOOOOOOOOOMMM!

A significant low pressure system will impact the northeast Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds and rain. The system may reach 970mb near Boston! Scattered power outages and flooding are very possible with this system as rainfall could reach up to 4" for some locations. pic.twitter.com/umQDHTwrhe

— USAwx (@USAwx) October 15, 2019

Guidance is in good overall agreement with major cyclogenesis
off the Mid Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon into the
night. This is in response to an amplifying upper trough
emerging from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states, phasing
with a southern branch frontal wave and subtropical moisture.
Where there is some uncertainty, is with the timing and how
explosive the initial development is with the low. The 12Z NAM
continues to be slower and deeper (about 10 mb by 06Z Thu) with
the resultant low. However, the trend is certainly more in line
with the other operational models, and not as deep as previous
runs. This is key for couple of reasons, one for the timing of
the heavy rain, and the other to determine whether the strong
easterly flow will coincide with the time of high tide. The
latter of which raises the issue for potential coastal flooding.
See Coastal Flood section below for additional details.

As for the rainfall, the system is loaded with strong upper
dynamics (negatively tilted upper trough and coupling upper jet
exit and entrance regions) and strong thermal forcing, with the
potential for several inches of rainfall. The heaviest rain
looks to be north and west of the low track, which will
encompass most of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts at this
time look average 2 to 3 inches, with the potential for higher
amounts in banded rain. The one saving grace is that antecedent
conditions have been dry and main stem rivers will likely be
able to handle these amounts. Gridded FFG values for NE NJ are 2
to 2 1/2 inches for 6 hours. Much of this rain occurs in a 6 to
9 hour window from late afternoon/early evening to just after
midnight. Thus, a flash flood watch is in effect for NE NJ.
Elsewhere, there is a lower probability of flash flooding for
urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas.

Ahead of the low, a period of E/SE winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph are likely along the coast Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Then in the wake of low pressure, W/NW winds
of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph are expected late Wednesday
night.

Winds

Coastal Flooding – Moderate – 2 high tides

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday

morning/afternoon we feel the effects

 

A Nor Trifecta?

Ask and you shall receive – next weekendish 10-24 to the 26th time frame

 

After this storm on its backside we get cold, below freezing cold – warning has been given about this.

 

Speaking of cold – look at this:

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS, THE U.S. BROKE A STAGGERING 2,159 LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS VS JUST THE 213 FOR MAX

Even NOAA's blatant AGW bias can't hide the intensifying #GrandSolarMinimum.

Also, this image contains fewer than HALF of the new record lows set:https://t.co/y6mTqhxmvT

— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) October 15, 2019

Have a great night.

 

Updates to come.

 

Al Q